> but it'll probably be 5+ years before this is commercially available
I think you should look at the progress of image, text, and video generation over the past 12 months and re-asses your timeline prediction.
I think you should look at the progress of image, text, and video generation over the past 12 months and re-asses your timeline prediction.
I honestly think we'll get there within 18 months.
My skepticism is whether the technique described here will be the basis of what people will be using in ~2 years to replace their low level static 3d asset generation.
There are several techniques out there, leveraging different sources of data right now. This looks like a step in the right direction, but who knows.
At the moment, making 3d models is a lot of skilled, monotonous work, especially for stuff like scene furniture. I guess I'd be pretty happy if some of that work could be automated away, and I'm pretty confident that there's no point automating away the remainder, for the same reason you don't want ChatGPT writing your screenplay.
But this stuff trickles down to the public very slowly. Because indies aren't a good audience to sell what is likely an expensive tech that is focused on mid-large scale production.
>Most people are not a competent <insert job here>. Most people don't know a competent <insert job here> or can't afford to hire one.
emphasis mine. Affordability doesn't have much to do with capabilities, but it is a strong factor to consider for an indie dev. Devs in fields (games, VFX) that don't traditionally pay well to begin with.
>the relevance of your argument to the reality of the scene is not clear.
I feel it's clear if you're following the conversation chain. Is there something you'd like me to clarify?
Practical applications for a medium-large studio is very different from the practical applications of a solo/small dev team. That's all I'm really getting at. There is all kinds of cool tech from 2010 that still isn't viable for indies but is probably used at every AAA studio, so there's precedent I'm basing this on.