> though the increasingly extreme politics of some red states does seem likely to push harder

The opposite is also true - the politics of blue states are becoming increasingly extreme as well.

I moved from a blue city in a purple state on the East Coast back to the very red state where I grew up primarily for that reason. The blue state was restricting homeschooling and making it increasingly difficult to legally carry a firearm, which are two critically important issues for me.

> CA in particular also has the constant underlying filter of high QoL+CoL which will always be attracting those who can make the move (professionals).

I could never move to CA given its political climate. A few years ago I was working for a company based in the LA area, and was offered an additional ~$120k base salary if I'd move there. It wasn't worth it to me.