Metabolism Myths

Paywalled.

At any rate, seems to mostly align with my thoughts: weight loss is simple, eat fewer calories than you burn.

Exercising will burn calories, but far fewer than a diet adjustment can possibly account for. Running for 15 minutes only burns one can of soda.

Generally though, more muscle = more baseline calories burned. So, gaining muscle through exercise can have benefits beyond the workout itself. People tend to feel hungrier though, and so over time they return to their set point of pounds of fat.