One could argue that someone who has published 3 breakthrough papers is more likely to publish a 4th simply because they must have deep understanding of the field to have published 3 breakthrough papers.

It is obviously not a guarantee, but as with many things in life, previous success does tend to favour future success.

Currently working at Google? It's more likely that you will work for Apple in the future compared to the average developer. Got good grades in physics, you will probably get good grades next term too when compared to your average class mate. Got a startup that focuses on some practical use of LLMs, much more likely to get funding than if it focuses on some practical use of Markov models.

Most breakthroughs are discovered accidentally and retroactively, so I'd think that having multiple breakthrough papers is fairly uncommon.

I'm finding it hard to understand what you are after.

Is it given a researcher, P(second breakthrough paper|first breaktrough paper) for some definition of breakthrough?