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> We believe superintelligence could arrive within the next 10 years

This has been the case since the 60s. "could arrive within 10 years" is the tech equivalent of "maybe within our lifetimes". Nothing to see here.

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Had you told me that something with the capabilities of GPT-4 or Mixtral 8x7B "will arrive within 10 years" back in 2013, I'd have said you were smoking something. It seems that while the current LLM boom is under way, it's quite silly to underestimate how far this wave can go, even if it ends up not being superintelligence. Ignore at your own peril.

Maybe we can ask it to design a commercially feasible fusion reactor for us when it arrives!

Christ almighty can you imagine the nerves plugging the reactor in and executing its code for the first time? Does it (A) produce limitless clean energy or (B) kill every human in accordance with the secret self-generated fallback prompt.

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