"Butterfly idea" is a cute aphorism but there is already a term of art for this which ought to be in more widespread use especially among nerds: hypothesis, as in, "This is just a hypothesis, but ..."
> I’ve been on the butterfly crushing end of this myself- I’m thinking of a particular case last year where my friend brought up an idea that, if true, would require costly action on my part. I started arguing with the idea, they snapped at me to stop ruining their dreams. I chilled out, we had a long discussion about their goals, how they interpreted some evidence, and why they thought a particular action might further said goals, etc.