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Comment by snek_case | Hacker News Reader

Seems to me that trigger events for wars are often about finding a justification for a war that people in power were already wanting to start. America doesn't want to go to war with Russia because we know it could be incredibly destructive, given that they have nukes. So, it would probably take a lot to start a war between the US and Russia. They would have to attack or be clearly planning to attack a NATO ally.

It's possible that even if Russia intentionally downed a US jet, it would not immediately trigger a war. The US would likely add more sanctions, but they would probably show incredible restraint as well.

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> a war that people in power were already wanting to start

This is synonymous with a political goal. War is politics by other means. The dirty secret under that being most wars democracies engage in are publicly supported, at least at the outset.

In this case the Houthis have been the ones not reacting for many years:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/21/us-war-crimes-yemen-stop...

"Not reacting" how? There's been an ongoing war for almost a decade now.

When was the last time they attacked US shipping?

That seems like an extremely narrow definition of "reacting," but even then, pretty regularly over many years, actually. In addition to the attacks earlier last month linked in TFA, here's a couple articles showing that this has been an ongoing thing:

https://news.usni.org/2016/10/11/uss-mason-fired-3-missiles-...

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/03/houthis-incr...

This isn't to dispute evidence of US war crimes, to be clear, but claiming the Houthis have just been doing nothing in response does not line up with the overwhelming evidence.

> They would have to attack or be clearly planning to attack a NATO ally.

Somehow I doubt a war would start if a NATO ally would be attacked. Perhaps if invaded but not if attacked. And it’s not the US i don’t trust, it’s continental western europe. It lacks the military and the economy to carry out a war against any country with a bit of power. Continental Western Europe has already proven a lack of will and capacity. Wars in eastern europe are cataclismic events and the only country that can survive and potentially win is the US and the countries in the region if well armed and properly motivated.

Therefore, as soon as a NATO country is attacked, west europe will claim tough luck, pull back and appease. The US won’t want to do it alone - and rightfully so. Putin knows this and is marching on. The cost of invasion for him and Russia is negligible - if anything it’s a net positive, as he now knows what his army lacks and it exposed those in his ranks that need replacement.

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