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Comment by feverzsj | Hacker News Reader

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

It has supposedly been coming for the last 20 years reality is the cat is out of the bag and it won't be stuffed back in.

Even at today levels of AI a very large amount of work can be optimized if the domain experts knew how to use the ai tools. As people become more used to using them I don't see an ai winter coming.

Even if we had no new developments in AI, the effects of the current SotA would be massive over the next decade. There are myriad tools already built on or incorporating AI to deliver real value.

Ignoring the fact that wild science fiction has become totally mundane within the last 10 years is putting your head in the sand.

I saw an ad on the London Underground recently from a brewery that included "AI." It's starting to feel a lot like the dotcom/crypto bubble.

— When the market is on everyone’s mind, it’s time to sell.

Joseph P. Kennedy, 1929 (paraphrased)

Headline: "AI Winter shouted from the rooftops for the millionth time this year, meanwhile for the weather showing balmy 85 degree temperatures for the next few years"

AI isn’t vaporware, but in my view there is a massive AGI bubble right now.

Everyone is attributing high level reasoning and intelligence to LLMs and quite frankly there is little evidence for this being the case.

There is almost certainly an AGI winter coming.

Disney and Pixar animation are about to get 10,000x - 100,000x cheaper and accessible to nearly anyone.

When applied to the correct domains, AI is incredible.

What good does that do though ? It’ll wipe out entire careers so you can have what ? Cheap cartons ?

Not disagreeing, just curious what makes you think this is so incredible ? Did you not have enough to watch before ?

I want to make. Due to opportunity cost, capital cost, personnel cost - I could never be in that seat.

This will empower fan fiction authors, web comic authors, indie creators, et al. to all reach new heights that they couldn't before.

You won't be making, you'll be generating whatever the model allows you to generate based on copyright restrictions?

To actually think this requires nothing but raw ignorance of the creative process.

You can't draw that conclusion from what I said at all. These are tools.

Good web comics and fan fiction require creativity. They're low cost, but high effort endeavors that are achievable by solo creators.

Now there's a path appearing that will give this same class of people the tools to reach new creative heights that most could never achieve by themselves.

This is a good thing. It's a tool. You still have to be an artist to use it effectively.

Believing AI tools are going to give people anything approaching Pixar capabilities demonstrates your ignorance perfectly.

I'm definitely not ignorant, because I work directly in this field. The things happening in academia, within my company, and with competitors will blow your mind.

Let's circle back on this soon.

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