Apple=Sony: brace for the coming post-Steve Jobs decline

Overall, my biggest problem here is that George Colony (the author) doesn't point to any specific evidence for why Apple should decline now. It will decline, and I think it's fair to grant that as an inevitability, but I'm not sure Jobs's death will bring it about. The theory he holds up is nice and maybe handy, but unless he's got some special knowledge of exactly how Apple works (and he may, but then he's failing to show it), it's all speculation. Just seems like guess-work and link-baiting to me.

While the article makes mention of new product design and other issues where Apple could become like Sony, perhaps the two biggest near-term future risks for Apple are disruption to its China-focused supply chain and a significant narrowing of the margin it earns on its current products. The China supply chain risk is often overlooked, but even if the disruption is short term, it could have significant impact on current and new product introductions. The margins Apple current has on iPhones, iPads, iTunes and apps are likely to face significant pressures in the coming 12-24 months from competitors, perhaps excluding iTunes & apps, unless the iOS market share also shrinks.

The uniqueness has been a significant factor in driving past high net earnings and could be quickly lost. I wonder how long it will be before Apple loses its "cool" factor, if it already hasn't begun with established key support bases, because of the near-ubiquitous of its products and the increasing lack of user uniqueness.

The big difference is that I was never tied, in any way to Sonys ecosystem, because their never was one. I am more tied to Apples, with my collection of music, videos and apps. Sonys products were nice, but ultimately replaceable, devices with something pretty much similar. They were purely a hardware show.

It seems like Steve Jobs was aware of this pattern and actively worked to prepare Apple for a post-Jobs era.

The fact is that Apple is in uncharted territory from a business perspective so I'd be cautious about any sort of prediction (good or bad) about the 'ultimate' fate of Apple.

He founded Pixar, and without him for many it proved to be one of the best animation studios in the world.

Isn't it a bit soon to make this kind of prediction?

And who was the charismatic figure behind Sony?