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Comment by mort96 | Hacker News Reader

Surely this is the final nail in the coffin for the whole 737 Max?

The reality is that whether Boeing choose to do a re-brand of the Max, the underlying airplane is here to stay. For this class of airline, there are basically two suppliers in the west - Boeing and Airbus. Boeing has about 6,000 orders for the Max, and Airbus has about 10,000 orders for the A320 Neo. Airbus is delivering about 500 planes a year. So let's say an airline bites the bullet and cancels their orders for the Max and goes to Airbus - Airbus won't be able to deliver for the best part of a decade at best. Meanwhile, it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch and it still has tonnes of outstanding orders. And that's not even considering the fact that these airplanes have a lifespan of 25 years.

So in general there's simply no replacement for the 737 Max. People will be flying on them for the foreseeable future unless something causes a massive drop in air travel.

> it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch and it still has tonnes of outstanding orders

More expensive than not selling any of them?

It actually isn't a question of the money so much as of time. A new airplane would take about 10-15 years to come to market. And then nothing is won. The problem isn't that the doors are bad on the Max, the problem is, that they are not properly attached.

Also rushing a new plane is more likely to be a safety risk. The 737 fundamentally is a safe plane - there is plenty knowledge on how to operate it safely. A completely new design would start that from scratch.

> The 737 fundamentally is a safe plane

Which 737? Have you forgotten the 350 people killed by trying to make the 737 MAX pretend it flies like an earlier model?

All of them. As shown by the overall statistics. And no, I haven't forgotten the MAX crashes. But the issue was addressed. And I hope all 737 pilots have checked the corresponding cutoff switches.

But that is exactly the point: a new plane would mean a new learning phase how to operate it safely. It can and should be done, but it isn't a silver bullet, especially none which would arrive withing the next 10 years.

> it would be enormously expensive for Boeing to design a replacement for the 737 Max from scratch

Boeing has spent enough on stock buybacks for three or four clean-sheet 737 redesigns:

https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/boeing-safety-stock-buy...

> Boeing is a world leader in stock buybacks. Between 1998 and 2018, the plane manufacturer also manufactured a whopping $61.0 billion in stock buybacks, amounting to 81.8 percent of its profits.

Without the 737 max the airlines would need to change the way how they operate. And use more smaller and bigger planes. So not necessarily a drop in air travel is needed. Also the lifetime of existing planes could be extended a bit.

The problem is with the quality management throughout the manufacturing process and not with the specific airplane model except that the manufacturing sites vary between the models.

As the production probably cannot be easily moved, a replacement just isn't available and the market just needs a ton of 737-sized airplanes, the only solution is to up the game along the production line quickly and massively.

Wouldn't trust the craftsmanship, better to cremate.

Not until a tragedy hits too close to home (America, that is). I mean, we've had two 100% fatal crashes and yet here we are.

they survived two decades or so of penny wise pound foolish management, maybe they can weasel themselves out of this mess to keep the show going for another two

Without the 737 Max Boeing will have serious issues keeping the company afloat.

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