Ukraine War Predictions Are Usually Wrong. So Here Are Mine for 2024

These predictions are probably correct. I think that the main reason is that the West does not want to give more advanced weapongs (F-16, Taurus, Patriot systems) because of fear for escalation.

Europe is slow to wake-up and this is worring with the prospect of Trump becoming the next president. It is very likely he will stop support for Ukrain and/or NATO. (I even wonder whether he will support Taiwan and just let PRC take over the island.)

Much stronger sanctions could also help. Russians are still rather free to travel. There are still many western companies operating in Russia [1]. Also exports from western countries to central asian countries have increased up 500% in the past years and many critical components are still reaching Russia.

[1] https://leave-russia.org/staying-companies

In the order of listing: (1), (2), and regarding (3):

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39114420

Yet:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39127870

But note the AI vs. AI angle in (3).

The title is also worth contemplating; maybe some day, after the war, we have studies also on whether, how, and why the predictions were often wrong.