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> The only that I think is given that will expand its global market share is China.

That doesn't make sense given that all the other big blocks are cooperating across borders while China is subject to stiff export controls in an area with real technological chokepoints.

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PRC is entrant, west is incumbant with majority of global shares to lose. PRC building up mature nodes, which is still plurarity of chips, which they can soon with indigenous supply chains. As since they are huge export source, and intermediate good source, they get to inject their own chips into everything on global markets. Of which they now trade more with global south than they do western bloc. West can consolidate within bloc, but they'll start to lose large segements of global share, which is where future growth will be. Loss of global revenue, will in turn impact west ability to R&D without large subsidies, which drives down commercial viability. There was study analysing result of PRC domestic overcapacity turn into exports in various sectors like solar, display etc, and their effects on incumbant leaders (predominantly western firms) operating profits, and the effect was like 50-100% loss. The TLDR is west already has dominant global share, any share PRC gains on global market is share lost by west, and west is going to lose big if they retreat/consolidate around only monopolizing western shares .

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