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Comment by H8crilA | Hacker News Reader

The craziest thing is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And not only that, the weapons are at the disposal of the local (very high ranking) commanders. It also is a country where the military is really in charge, only occasionally giving back the control to a civilian government.

Sometimes people think that Eastern Europe is the most likely place to get nuked, or perhaps some American carrier off the coast of China. But in reality it's both Pakistan and India.

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> in reality it's both Pakistan and India

Pakistan’s top brass is anti-India. They’re also somewhat rational. If Pakistan’s nukes are launched, it’s because the zealots took control. At that point, I’m betting on Israel or even one of the Arab monarchies (if not Islamabad itself) [1].

[1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/Sh...

>They’re also somewhat rational

It only takes one generation to forget everything.

> Pakistan’s top brass is anti-India

The top brass tried to negotiate a normalization of relations with India in 2019 at the behest of the UAE and Saudi.

It was supposed to be a legacy making policy of the former Chief of Army Staff Bajwa [0] but was scuttled by Imran Khan [1]

There is a bit of Qatar+Turkiye versus Saudi+UAE intrigue in this as well, as Imran Khan leaned pro-Qatar and helped them bypass the Saudi+UAE lead blockade on Qatar [2], which was a no-no for Saudi and the UAE.

Imran Khan had a decent domestic policy, but his foreign policy was basically pissing everyone off - from Saudi to UAE to India to the USA - and was what lead to his demise.

[0] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-...

[1] - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/imran-...

[2] - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-06-...

Well, one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine, so I imagine there's a probability conditional there.

TIL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use#Countries_against...

Russia has a lot of unacknowledged "lost" soviet-era nukes that are actually still in its control.

I could see them detonating one in India/Pakistan as a false flag to try and kick off a broader exchange to distract the West from Ukraine.

What an insane conspiracy. They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need.

You mean "conspiracy theory".

>What an insane conspiracy

Is english your second language? Conspiracy is not an accurate term for that, we are discussing hypothetical geopolitical strategy not something that might have happened.

>They already invaded Ukraine what more distraction could they need.

Please re-read my comment again, the context is obviously completely lost on you. The ukraine debacle is precisely what russia wants to distract _from_. Kicking off another major geopolitical crisis (tiawan invasion, india/pakistan exchange, war in gaza) are all things that would/are benefiting russia as it splits western focus.

And since you're so keyed in on the "conspiracy" word, I think it might surprise you to learn the the russian government/FSB is actively _conspiring_ to win their war in ukraine, just as ukraine is conspiring to not lose.

Doctrine is just a paper. It's not even constitution. It could be changed in a minute if necessary (or even post-factum or some sketchy justifications could be made up).

It surprises me sometimes, how much value people put in some documents, disregarding those who can change or ignore those documents.

Everything is just paper or words. The constitution? Words. Only power is power. Only shackles constrain. Even computer code is just code. But in my experience, documents count for something because of the result of violating the documents. If your experience is that nothing you've said or written holds water, then so be it. We will see, in time, whose approach leads whom to a better life.

The constitution holds power because the judiciary is independent from the executive and congress. This friendly adversarial tension creates belief in the constitution (similar to social belief in currency) which makes it harder to dislodge. That goes out the window in a dictatorship. It becomes more about the self interest of one person, and if the piece of paper is against that then they'll throw it out.

It's just words. If the President marched the army into the court, the judiciary would capitulate. Books won't protect them.

Not in Pakistan. Pakistan has had 40 years of direct marshal laws, 35 years of indirect marshal laws since 1947. Pakistan Army operate a state within the state. Where what constitution says matters less than what an army chief says. They control the judiciary by blackmailing them by their corruption charges or recording them necked, whom they can't control are forced to resign, who do not comply to pressure they storm the courts with the militant wings. They change sentiments and spread fear but using them for a suicide attack.

But this time, things changed. Public get to know what has been happening to their country since last 75 years.

> But in my experience, documents count for something because of the result of violating the documents.

I'll bite - what's the "result" of violating a "no first use of nuclear weapons" statement?

There are two cases. In one case, you got nuked back. In the other, the folks that you nuked aren't in much of a position to do anything, having been nuked and all.

What is the "result" in both cases? (If said result requires someone doing something, who is that said someone and why/how are they going to act against an entity that has used nukes recently?)

The result is that no one else can tolerate your nuclear ability after that. You don't become just an enemy of the guys you nuked, but everyone else as well. And nuclear weapons are far more capable than conventional weapons but you can survive being nuked. It's not the end of the world.

The problem follows after, when India can no longer convince America, Russia, or China that they can be trusted with nuclear weapons.

Economic sanctions would be devastating. India has limited fossil fuels and as of now a not yet fully indigenous defence industry. Being irresponsible nuclear users means all major powers will cut them off because they're a danger to all.

It isn't even clear that other world powers will settle for isolation. They may well require disarmament.

Credibility matters. One of the important aspects of having nuclear weapons is laying out the conditions in which you expect to use them, and a lot of international relations theory, especially in the military sphere, is about trying to analyze how you would expect states to respond to different situations.

I don't think anyone seriously expects a nuclear state threatened with imminent destruction to forgo use of nuclear weapons (even in the presence of a non-first use statement). The question is how close to that condition does a state have to be in before it decides to use nuclear weapons. For the states with explicit non-first use policies, the expectation is that it is very close indeed. By contrast, Pakistan has effectively an explicit first use policy: it will resort to nuclear weapons very early in a war. The US has a particularly mealy-mouthed policy, saying that it will only use nuclear weapons against nuclear states, but heavy vacillation on the threshold of their use in such conflicts. All of the other nuclear states basically state that their nuclear weapons are solely a defensive measure.

Would the country with a no first use happen to be the country with a prime minister and governors that encourage killing of their own country men with a different religion. Color me skeptical

> one of those two countries has a no-first-use nuclear doctrine

They're thinking about doing away with it in India due to the China factor (though politicians will always say it's because of Pakistan) [0][1].

It's kind of scary tbh. China expands it's arsenal to compete with the US. India gets scared and starts expanding it's arsenal in turn. Pakistan gets scared and they start expanding their arsenal as well. And this has caused all 3 countries to enter an arms race that is not going to slowdown anytime soon.

It's already having a destabilizing effect in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Afghanistan, Eastern Africa, etc

[0] - https://www.orfonline.org/research/nuclear-rethink-a-change-...

[1] - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-no-first-use-nuc...

> But in reality it's both Pakistan and India

If you want to stay up at night - India, Pakistan, and China basically had a Cuban Missle Crisis level event in 2019-2020.

India and Pakistan almost went to war in 2019 after the Pulwama attack [0] and then India and China were a trigger away from starting a war over the Galwan river [1].

[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/25/india-pakistan-came...

[1] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav...

There are disputed border areas between India and China, and the two countries have had multiple skirmishes there, but to prevent any serious escalation, the two countries have mutually agreed not to use firearms, so they mostly fight with melee weapons. This is to avoid escalation.

> the two countries have mutually agreed not to use firearms

The Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement from 1993 is over now after the intial clash on the confluence of Shyok and Galwan River, leaving casualties on both sides.

Indian and Chinese soldiers now patrol armed again.

After that initial clash, several additional clashes started, both India and China began mobilizing, and India considered launching artillery strikes on Chinese positions.

Read the article - it's written by the General Naravane, who was commanding the Indian Army at the time.

Oh no

This stuff is what keeps me awake at night.

"No rational person would use nuclear weapons first" Well, who's to say that the people in charge of the nukes are rational? All it takes is one madman and we could have one of the biggest disasters in human history. We tend to underestimate the likelihood of such disasters and don't prepare for them (COVID is one example.) One day, someone will fire a nuclear weapon at civilians and we just have to hope it isn't in our lifetime.

Nuke-wielding dictatorships are the scariest because they can eliminate the checks and balances in the way of a launch. If Putin falls ill tomorrow and thinks the Americans poisoned him, what's to say he won't nuke them as final revenge? What about Kim Jong Un? What about Xi Jinping?

> One day, someone will fire a nuclear weapon at civilians and we just have to hope it isn't in our lifetime.

Guessing you're not Japanese?

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