IMHO maintaining a large number of files on disk (be it 16m or 1.5b) should be a non-starter (not to mention that zipping them to slightly reduce the count removes one of the benefits of having them in the first place). A database makes sense - as does SOC between generation and distribution if it brings benefit - but immediately writing off SQLite because of write performance[1]? Similarly the arguments against pmtiles feel outdated and ignorant of the developing nature of the protocol (appreciate it's a 2yo post!).
OSM deciding on a format here has potential to significantly shape things to come. Hopefully Paul has progressed his thinking a bit since this was written.