Comment by khokhol | Hacker News Reader

Comment by khokhol | Hacker News Reader

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Russia simply has way more men, and can eventually attrite Ukraine into a demographic death spiral.

Not so, because to fully subjugate another country (that is strongly determined to defend itself) a mere 3x population differential, as Russia has over Ukraine, is not sufficient. Really you need more like 10x. This is one of the main reasons why nearly all the European colonial efforts, and American efforts in Vietnam and Afghanistan ultimately failed.

And why Israel knows it will never be able to subjugate the population of Gaza for any length of time.

The jackals of the American arms industry turning it into a live weapons laboratory is particularly grim.

Basically another version of the "Dontcha know, it's really the West's fault that we have this conflict in the first place; poor misunderstood Russia was simply forced to defend itself, you see" line.

It's supremely naive to think that Russia wants to fully subjugate Ukraine and instead of allowing one to observe clearly how this war is unfolding, such thinking creates a false reality that is ripe for exploitation and susceptible to propaganda.

The Russians will simply grab and keep the oblasts with large ethnic Russian populations and ensure that the rest of Ukraine remains a broken state. They've already captured 20% of Ukraine and if this war continues, this will certainly increase, but will not reach even 50%. One would be stupid to think that Putin is interested in another Afghanistan.

It's supremely naive to think that Russia wants to fully subjugate Ukraine

You're splitting hairs, and basically putting up a strawman defense here.

Whether Russia intended to subjugate about 70 percent of Ukraine's territory (which by all indications was its initial goal at the outset, and probably still is), or 100 percent, is irrelevant to the main point under discussion.

Your words were that Russia "can eventually attrite Ukraine into a demographic death spiral", implying some sort of eventual decisive victory over Ukraine (as opposed to holding on to a few Oblasts).

The latter it might be able to do, but the former - no.

One would be stupid to think that Putin is interested in another Afghanistan.

He has already racked up 4x the total casualties of the Afghan occupation in just 2 years. We all know it isn't what he "wanted" but it's the situation he has created for himself, and his people, nonetheless.

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