There is so little competition, and it would be so expensive to spin something up… I could see it sputtering along for many years. Who can disrupt this? Need space X level money and research, and not sure the profit potential is as high.
Part of the problem is also that airlines have been very good at squeezing the duopoly while demanding ever more. The competition, if it manages to get a plane in the air, usually isn’t as fuel efficient and so the airlines have mostly not been interested.
To be fair, that's because Boeing forced them to sell the rights to the A220 for $1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSeries_dumping_petition_by_Bo...
The USITC reversed their own decision a year or so later, and Boeing chose to not appeal the decision, but Bombardier and Canada ended up deciding to not pursue things further.
Russia might certify it unless having a viable domestic alternative. Moreover, it could reuse parts for its own planes.
These three taken together are already a significant chunk of the global market, each having a large domestic demand.
The problem with Tu-204 is that it wasn't a good market fit, like the current Chinese ARJ. It was certified OK and could fly abroad all right.
People said the same about Chinese cars and they're the largest exporter in 2023.
What if they have not one but ten generic passenger plane brands by 2040?
They demonstrated localized version of SSJ-100 with PD-8 engine in 2023. I'm not sure if it actually flew, but there were at least ground tests of the fully assembled aircraft.
I much rather fly in an E195 E2 than a 737 or A320 Neo. Really next level. KLM has these, unfortunately they rarely use them to my destination because they can fill a 737 to there as well :(
I'm also certain they don't want to.