It was a western lie that Putin wants to invade Ukraine up to the second it happened, and then it became obviously the only possible choice overnight.
The most important thing to understand about Russians is that they were trained for centuries to be passive cynical conformists. It mostly worked. There are some actual nationalists who want the war. But most Russians view them as madmen who are "sticking out" and will suffer for it eventually. It's as stupid to be openly unpatriotic as it is to be too patriotic. See girkin.
Most Russians just subconsciously detect the safest position and orient themselves accordingly. Not because of conscious fear, simply by default. If Navalny became Russian president - the next day 80% of Russians would be completely persuaded they were always against the war. Orthodox church doesn't have much influence, IMHO, it's just aligned like everything else.