Will Japan's Population Death Spiral? | Hacker News Reader

Will Japan's Population Death Spiral?

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12 pointsthunderbong8 comments

I know change is scary, but this seems like a change whose time has come. The economists chant "numbers must go up" but the earth is already vastly overtaxed by our species. Our impact continues to grow worse every year as living standards improve globally, so a peaceful reduction in population to compensate seems like a best case scenario.

I’m glad that global trends are proving Malthusian arguments about population growth wrong. I do think it is true that people (as a population) will have as many children as they can easily support. But what Malthus missed IMO is that with education and technology the baseline for what people think of as an acceptable life for their children is increasing.

In 1850 you might have a few more kids, thinking they could farm more and through hard labor your family could break even on resources. Your family of 8 all shares a single bedroom and you only send the smartest kid to high school (begrudgingly).

In 2024 people are putting off children because they won’t be able to afford a nanny, because the price of globally-sourced instantly-available groceries are too high, or because they are feeling their life already has enough richness and direction. If I cared for my children in the way we used to during population explosion they would be taken by CPS.

The inflection point where our global population levels out will be Interesting Times, but I’m optimistic for the long term sustainable culture that may result.

I don't think South Korea or Japan will population death spiral. I think Cold War 2.0 will cause a fertility bump

Why would/do people want to bring children into a cold war?

Well the Baby Boom was in the aftermath of WW2 and the dawn of the cold war.

This thing is a slow motion train wreck that's already half over. A lot is already baked in. Even if you could convince young people to start having a lot more babies overnight, there are three times as many 50 year olds as 1 year olds. You can't go back in time and create more one year olds or 10 year olds, and so even with replacement fertility, 20-30 years from now there will just be way less people of childbearing age.

Also 20 years from now, retirees are going to be the majority of the population. Since Korea is a democracy, this means that the government's priorities and budget are going to cater to them, not the 25 year olds trying to start a family. That means generous old age benefits funded by high taxes on working age people, making it all that much harder to afford a family, especially a large one.

It's a brave new world.

These fragments I have shored against my ruins Why then Ile fit you. Hieronymo’s mad againe. Datta. Dayadhvam. Damyata. Shantih shantih shantih

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