Hacker News Reader

Comment by shawabawa3 | Hacker News Reader

> I have yet to hear a solid argument against Tesla achieving full self-driving within the next ten years.

You haven't heard a solid argument against me personally achieving full self-driving either, but that doesn't make it realistic

You are also assuming they are able to sell their FSD for a profit, and aren't out-competed by e.g. Waymo. Maybe Tesla does make full self driving a reality, but only after Waymo has licensed a better version of self driving to Toyota who sell millions of automated cars before Tesla

View on HN

Mercedes-Benz is actually in some ways the leader: "first automaker to receive government approval in the US for a Level 3 driving feature. "

https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23572942/mercedes-drive-p...

But yes _if_ it's possible and inevitable then it will also soon be a commodity.

No. They’re not. How people keep falling for this bullshit is beyond me https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/19e8hjf/wh...

Not denying your point, but the people who drive those Mercedes, are not exactly the same people as the ones buying Teslas and posting their successful rides all over the place.

Yes of course. Not a single fan of self driving among buyers and nobody decided to rent one for lulz and/or youtube clout.

Please.

Well, the arguments against goes the same way - if the system was no good, you can be sure that Tesla promoters would have posted 100s of videos of it already.

The fact that they didn't, tells me it's not that bad.

Thats a WILD derivative you came up with lol I salute your perseverance sir

I do not think that the argument "If the Mercedes-Benz system is so good, then where are all the youtube videos?" is a stronger argument than "If the Tesla system is so good, then where is all the regulatory approval and the full legal liability?"

The latter seems much harder to game, to me.

Also, since you've put the goalposts here, I just looked for these videos and other reviews of the MB-system. What do you know, they do exist.

You think all the Tesla videos are gamed?

I don't think your question shows understanding of what I wrote, or good faith.

The point is: The videos of Tesla's FSD are pretty good evidence of their progress.

MB being allowed to keep the lane in certain situations is not much evidence of them progressing towards FSD.

But not in the same category as regulatory approval and full legal liability.

IDK, this is pretty much what I said above already, just in slightly different words. But whatever, you put your full trust and faith in youtube instead if you want.

Videos of cars handling complex situations are a much better indicator of progress than regulatory approval to do very simple things.

Then it's odd that the people with the cool videos didn't manage to get the "easier" regulatory approval. I already said that in different words in a comment above, maybe you missed it?

A video on Youtube is not a "better indicator" for anything serious or requiring certification. It is an entertainment platform at best, spammed full of disinformation and bias. Preferring it over anything else that has legal weight is some kind of credulous joke. But this just restates my above comment on which is easier to game, edit or cherry-pick.

    Then it's odd that the people with the cool videos didn't
    manage to get the "easier" regulatory approval.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39754238

    entertainment platform

It's not the platform that is the indicator. It's the videos.

Also, when third or fourth player enters the market. Would FSD not be commodity tech? Just buy a license and then every automaker will have it. At that point it is race to bottom, any self-driving car likely only making small margin over lifetime...

How would Waymo with their sensors bolted onto vehicles they gotta purchase and modify (currently costing them over 200k) outcompete Tesla’s extremely lean manufacturing prowess where they make entire vehicles with all the hardware needed for $20-30k?

Because the sensor package isn’t good enough or else they’d be much closer to Waymo’s capabilities.

1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD

2) says who? They seem quite close in my view. Certainly beyond ehere waymo was when they started test rides with safety drivers in Phoenix

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fd9cEEHCzY

https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1769500530739421414

> 1) We’re talking about a scenario in which Tesla does achieve FSD

I'm talking about the scenario where Waymo achieves full self driving at a cheaper per vehicle cost than Tesla (once their self-driving is good enough they will pivot to reducing the sensor costs)

Reply on news.ycombinator.com