The industry came up with reinsurance for this reason.
Step 2: use reinsurance to cover losses
Step 3: reinsurance premiums go up or reinsurer refuses to insure you
AIG anyone?
The state, of course, can be the reinsurance issuer of last resort if they really believe their numbers are correct. Or do something like the California Earthquake Authority which everyone knows is vastly underfunded, but at least there's the hint of a promise that when the Big One™ comes, they'll get emergency funding: https://www.earthquakeauthority.com