I would say this is an appeal to majority logical fallacy, but can we even quantify how many people actually believe in this, who have heard of this relatively obscure war in the first place?
Even at-the-time US Deputy Secretary of State called this a conspiracy theory.
Plus, I doubt you could bring about so many people who would be willing to blow up their countrymen so that they can fake an attack by some enemy and consolidate power for some up-and-coming politician. You would have to collect dozens of pure psychopaths to do that and all of them to remain quiet in the aftermath of the incident. With all that being said, it just doesn't seem very likely. That, or I'm being very naive, but I like to believe the former - not likely.
Still, I am not too familiar with this incident and the wars themselves. You seem to know more about this, so do you perhaps have some book recommendations?