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Comment by fgjbginobbn | Hacker News Reader

> because the pipeline is drying up for Junior Developers

How do you know this is due to AI and not poor economic conditions?

> Now just about any Senior Developer with Copilot can be that fabled 10x developer

While 10x can mean a lot of different things, I think it’s safe to say it’s not related to how fast you literally write code. I don’t see how Copilot is 10x’ing senior devs, unless they’re copying yaml all day (those tasks would be automated eventually, anyways).

> Anecdote: I have friends who are hiring, each open position is now receiving thousands of applications

Additional anecdote: 90% of those applications are worthless - as in you’re not even sure they’re real people worthless.

To the OP: maybe your software skills will be replaced by AI, though if that happens most other white collar jobs are done as well.

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> How do you know this is due to AI and not poor economic conditions?

What poor economic conditions? The economy is doing just fine. The markets are doing fine. Profits are at record highs. This isn't like 1991, 2001, and 2008 - all of which I was present for. We're seeing software developers being let go by the hundreds of thousands across the industry in a comparatively strong economy. There's your sign.

AI solutions haven't taken anyone's job yet. Current AI solutions do make copy-pasta a lot faster though. I believe the reason all these engineers lost their jobs is because of companies greedily re-budgeting to hire AI talent and acquire AI startups. AI still hasn't replaced any developers yet, although that might still happen one day.

Have any evidence for that or are you just trying to console yourself? Because hundreds of thousands of developers have been laid off in a strong economy. Your arguing that happening at the same time as the general availability of AI is just a coincidence seems a bit disingenuous. Today's AI is a force multiplier, one of the largest productivity boosts in history. Of course companies are going to cash-out on that opportunity - and they are.

You refer to the economy as strong. Relatively it's not. Also depends on what you mean by economy. There are parts of the economy which are worse than before, and those are affecting the job market. I'm not saying AI hiring is the only reason, the relatively bad economy is another reason. As for AI there were articles that mentioned exactly that, companies are ending other projects to invest in AI. I'm sorry I don't have a reference handy for you, maybe you can search for them. Since you don't seem to have understanding of what economy is and generalizing it, which is clearly a fallacy, I suggest you are either being arrogant or ignorant to console yourself

I'm not consoling myself - I'm facing the stark reality that AI is transforming the software development landscape and eliminating many jobs. You appear to be the one that doesn't want to face that reality.

From an economic standpoint, GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% - which is good. Consumer spending grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%. Unemployment has been under 4% for the past two years and job growth far exceeded expectations. Wages are now growing faster than inflation. Even housing and new home construction grew - despite rising interest rates! If you don't think this is a good economy, then you have unrealistic expectations of what makes a good economy.

So, coming back around to the topic at hand - if the economy is doing so well then why are developers being laid off by the hundreds of thousands? You claim AI has absolutely nothing at all to do with it. I say that makes no sense given all the facts we know. If anything, the demand for developers should be increasing, but that's not what we're seeing.

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