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Comment by wepple | Hacker News Reader

11 years to get the technology to a place where it can reasonably replace gas.

I have my doubts that we’ll have the range and capability by then, perhaps if automakers are smart we’ll see more series hybrids and range extender models.

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I am confident the technology issues will be solved having studied the market for many years. What you see now for products does not represent the state of the art which is mostly coming out of China.

Most automakers are currently redesigning and retooling for the new reality of very cheap BEVs with lots of range and very fast charging. The largest shift currently underway is a major change over to LFP packs with cell-to-pack technology and large format prismatic cells like the BYD blade and CATL qilin. We also inch closer to solid state and sodium batteries which is likely the enablers for the next wave of innovative products at all price points in 5 years.

I don’t think 500-600 mile range BEVs with 500kW+ charging will be that rare in 11 years. We already have some current examples like the 2024 Zeeker 001. Based on those figures recharging is on par with refueling an ICE car.

Charging speed is still increasing. Lucid Air peaks at 300kW, or 200mi in 12 minutes. The Hyundai Ioniq 6 is similar. But in China, there are 500kW EVs and chargers already being sold/installed. The Zeekr 001 does 300mi in 11 minutes. Here in the US, Gravity is installing 500kW chargers.

I don't know if the infrastructure for home charging will be ready by 2035... but as charging times decrease, replacing gas stations with charging stations becomes more viable.

Yes the Zeeker 001 is very impressive. Another 500kW+ charging EV is the Li Auto Mega van.

https://insideevs.com/news/710508/li-auto-mega-fast-charging...

It won't happen. There is not enough money to subsidize upgrades to residential power so every household can have 200A service, plus all the urban homes that lack a secure place to plug in, plus all the rural homes where people have extended commutes to work. People aren't going to settle for a shit sandwich just because some have a god complex.

To add to your point, a lot of apartment complexes still don't have the infrastructure to charge electric vehicles.

As EVs become more common, at some point the landlords will start falling over themselves to install charging so they can get tenants.

We did fine for two years with 60 amp service and only 110 with two EVs. It helped that there were superchargers nearby.

To clarify, 60 amp for the entire (apartment) unit. Obviously the 110 was, well, 110 so not many amps at all. And two cars shared one outlet, plugging in one car at a time as needed. It was a kitchen outlet so on the high side of amperage for 110, though I don’t know the number.

I don’t think the end state is everyone with an EV has home charging, that’s not practical.

The next generations of BEVs are getting faster and faster charging with longer ranges such that I don’t think this will be an issue.

You don't have to have 200A service. 100A can charge a car and it doesn't have to be annoying if you have a smart electrical panel which can prioritize charging with clothes dryer and stove usage. If the car is charging and you decide to dry clothes, it will switch off the car's circuit until the dryer shuts off. If you decide to cook dinner, it will shut off the car or the dryer until you turn the stove off again.

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