65 years ago, America announced the names of its first astronauts
theregister.com
theregister.com
A person living 1900-1970's would have gone from riding a horse to driving a car on the Interstate high way system, from sailing a ship to flying a plane, they've seen rollout of telephones, invention of nuclear bomb, radar and digital computers, spaceflight, etc. Their society completely transformed.
A person living from 1970's to today is still driving on a car on the same interstate highway, possibly living in a house that was built before they were born. And Electric transport is not that new either, London had a fleet of 20 electric busses in year 1908, and they were popular.
(more encouragingly, fitness may also be up there; was Vysotsky just a bit ahead of his time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_HWJlBSMSc )
EDIT: more specifically, access to domain knowledge hasn't increased that much; in the 1970s I was already in biking distance of 3 libraries and had several university libraries in a 1 hour radius, so there was already more domain knowledge available (probably even in a single library) than I could have learned in a lifetime. Yes, now I can browse talk slides that I would've had to attend in person back then, but we still had journals, and they are almost as good if one is not on the bleeding edge of a field.
What has changed dramatically is access to worlds beyond one's own. In the 1980s, I was involved in anime fandom and tangentially with UK sci fi fen. The first was paradoxically easier, because both Japan and the US were NTSC, so they didn't require camera copying. We samizdat'ed madly, and "sub or dub" wasn't even an issue, because neither was widely available. Now with the internet I can see what soviet 80's hairdo rock was like; what real Caucasian pop music is; Finnish tango; various Monkey King cartoons; etc. (anyone have recommendations for chinese pop?) at the click of a mouse.
EDIT2: in part why I think life hasn't changed that much may be because the future, back then, was supposed to be: https://nss.org/wp-content/uploads/Bernal_Interior_AC76-0628... , which would have been a major difference.
When I was a kid in the 1960s we had UK-wide fleets of electric vehicles delivering food items every day in reusable containers that were collected a few days later (hint: 'milk floats' with glass bottles).
The space program is just one of those amazing moments in US history to read about. A Man on the Moon was a good book for it, and there are some others in the top tier.
It's wild to know the movie Apollo 13 is closer now to the events than to the present. These guys were top notch.
In hindsight, it seems like the middle of the 20th century was right in the middle of an "S-curve" for societal change and technology advancement. Anyone who grew up in the 2nd half of the century thought it was completely normal. But now that we're somewhat removed from that era, it's more like completely bizarre to consider how much things changed in how little time.
The 90s when Apollo 13 came out were an interesting time in their own right because that's right around when the societal change started slowing down. Anyone who grew up in the late 80s and early 90s in particular probably doesn't even think of the 90s as being particularly "old". A lot of the same fashions and music styles that we have today had already emerged, at least in primitive forms. Cell phones and computers and the Internet were becoming mainstream. In a lot of ways, the late 90s and early 00s seem more familiar and similar to today than they do to the 1960s.
It's weird to imagine a world where major life-altering advancements aren't happening every decade (no, AI is not one of them, at least not yet). That's been the norm for over a century now, but it's come to some kind of an end. We are entering new cultural territory.
All the stuff we were 'promised' that we didn't get, like personal jet packs, flying cars etc, would cost a lot of energy to run. All the computing advances we did see were possible in the stagnant energy budget.
Nuclear energy would have helped keep the energy budget growing, but for a variety of reasons, it was never really widely enough adopted. I'm very optimistic about photovoltaic, because thanks to it being a semi-conductor technology its costs have been falling along a similar curve as other electronic products. I expect that to keep going until installation and land rent will be the predominant cost factors.
So per capita energy budget might go up again for a while, and with them labour productivity improvements might return for a while.
(And people didn't actually pay those crazy top rates in practice, they used tax optimisations.)
Born in '89, the 90s was my childhood. I will tell you today holds none of the magic the 90s had, it's ancient history. I pity the children of today.
Also, what was that old saying?: Everything you grow up with is magic, everything you see in adulthood is mundane, and everything in your senior years is fucking blasphemy?
But the Internet and social media have truly shifted society.
Social media has entirely transformed how people interact with the world and discover new things, for good and very much for bad.
People born past 2000 never knew a world without computers in every classroom (or in front of every student). Most never experienced having to be at home to receive messages from people, unless you went to their house. Needing to plan ahead with people when to meet. Everyone in society watching the same shows (mostly).
I think AI will fundamentally alter the world, like the Internet did. We're in the infant stages.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_We_Left_Earth:_The_NASA_M...
The character arcs are more like ... Space Soap Opera arcs rather than more grounded but that makes it only more entertaining IMO. They don't fully open the soap box on first season which is probably why it's the best of them.
The soap aspect is also somewhat defensible. A number of significant individuals critical to the space program back then had super weird life stories beyond their technical contributions. For sure, you had the stereotypical buttoned up test pilots with nerves of steel... but you also had.. Black magicians and Industrial scale mass murderers.
So, it's arguable are the For All Mankind characters too looney or not looney enough by a large margin.
[0] Black magician: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Parsons
[1] Industrial scale mass murderer:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Rudolph
You too may be a big hero
Once you've learned to count backwards to zero
"In German oder English I know how to count down
Und I'm learning Chinese" says Wernher von Braun
(for countdowns in a Japanese translation, see "Royal Space Force: The Wings of Honnêamise")Someone on HN convinced me recently that "Hitler in his Bunker" was on the looney side, but up until then the only non-looney explanation I had found for his behaviour was that he had been hoping he could sell germany wholesale either to the US[0] or to the USSR, not anticipating they would actually stay allied until after the war, each picking up the bits[1] they wanted retail (Operations Paperclip and Осоавиахим, respectively).
[0] had the Sportpalast speech been given in 1953 instead of 1943, the "only we are protecting the West against communism" shtick might have gone over much better in the States.
[1] it turns out that developing not just rockets but also jets is far less useful when, logistically speaking, you no longer have much oil and can no longer refine or synthesise sufficient jet fuel.
(someday I'd like to figure out how much early-50's graph theory may have been just the first unclassified publication of network analyses developed during the war for strategic bombing purposes; compare Kantorovich' development and application of linear programming during the Siege of Leningrad)
Linebarger relates that at the end of WWII, when getting Nazi units to surrender, they had difficulties[2] because although the officer corps was aware how operationally screwed they were, morale in the ranks was still high.
[2] supposedly the difficulties decreased after the psychological warfare operators created an official looking "surrender form", in the blanks of which soldiers could fill in their name, birthplace and Jahrgang, occupation, etc. etc. then provide, dutifully filled out, to Allied units. As an anglophone, it's certainly plausible, but maybe those are just my stereotypes speaking?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLQeqMaHVYs
"Hey, let's help him see it!"
While the software engineering aspects are left to the more obscure corners of the Apollo lore, Margaret Hamiltons groundbreaking contributions to the program should be known to enyone who programs professionally. Her teams work does show up, as the Apollo landing computer runs out of memory during the landing:
- "1202 Alarm" - "1202? It's executive overflow, if it does not occur again we are fine"
They were fine.
Less funny that V.V. Tereshkova [Vostok 6 on 16 June 1963], chosen in 1962, is now in the Duma ... representing ER.
[Never mind. ChatGPT explained to me: “ER in the statement likely stands for "United Russia" (Edinaya Rossiya in Russian), which is a political party in Russia. United Russia is the largest and the ruling political party of the Russian Federation, and Valentina Tereshkova, the first woman in space with her flight on Vostok 6 in 1963, has been a member of the Duma (the Russian parliament) representing this party.”]
In 2024 people still get nervous going on domestic flights. I can't imagine how someone could muster the sheer courage to volunteer as an astronaut, either then or now. It's a testament to humanity's willingness to risk even death in pursuit of something greater.
I would rephraze this as 'humanity's capability to sustain a large range of psychological profiles and the capability to filter out from the general population the particular individuals fitting for a given task'. My understanding is the astronauts were a very specific niche group and mostly wanted to fly faster and higher than anyone before them, and were willing to pay any price to achieve this.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09080-6
And in our chemical processes https://news.mongabay.com/2022/09/chinese-companies-slated-f...
I imagine we’d be talking about going carbon neutral by 2100 instead of 2050 if we hadn’t burned so much coal
We should reach peak coal sometime in this decade: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/coal-s-pe...
Recall, only a Sith deals in absolutes.
Unfortunately it didn't also herald in a new (and rather more ethical) era of colonization at the time. In fact we've been in a bit of a space exploration winter for a while. But new developments look really promising. This time we might end up a 'multiplanetary' species.
NASA’s budget for manned missions needs to be considered across time and as part of the US’s debt over 60+ years not just spending in individual years. Countries need some military spending but most countries have looked at manned missions as frivolous because they are. This is an annual trip to Cabo on your credit card not rent.
As to the ongoing cost from Apollo/shuttle/etc population isn’t static, but people wouldn’t have gotten 30 year bonds at 15.21% in 1981 if the total debt was significantly less. So it’s not an easy calculation, but it’s a bigger debt burden than you might think. Which IMO puts these missions in a different light.
Let’s do this another way - let us say tomorrow China started building a large industrial facility on the moon capable of 3D printing rocket parts and refuelling rockets. Logically that would allow militarisation of the moon too.
Let's imagine they are really going for it, and the first launches have already happened. Let’s say it cost them 8% of gov. budget, and it cost us the same.
Would you support or oppose matching China's effort? If you support it, is fear of falling behind the main motivation for you? Why is desire to get ahead not equally valid?
What are they going to do? Stage nuclear-tipped rockets there that you could wait until the next business day to respond to?
There may be a lunar purpose however - to gain economic hegemony over lunar resources. That is an entirely different issue.
I don't think it altered much of anything. I don't think most people cared or gave any thought to it. I doubt it changed even the space fans. This sounds like wishful thinking from a group looking for an easy way to alter intractable human nature.
I hope it makes you reconsider your position about disregarding non-quantifiable benefits.
> But when the McNamara discipline is applied too literally, the first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. The second step is to disregard that which can't easily be measured or given a quantitative value. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't important. The fo[u]rth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide. — Daniel Yankelovich, "Interpreting the New Life Styles", Sales Management (1971)
The "Overview Effect" thing also struck me as self-serving bullshit. It didn't seem to reflect anything I ever saw in the real world. It was something a space fan would like to be true, and so motivated reasoning took hold.
I worry though that like a scene from the book, "Days Between Stations", the U.S., 55 years later, still has Neil Armstrong in B&W stepping out onto the Moon on constant replay on their television sets as that one golden moment in our history that we've never been able to again measure up to.
Arguably, it was primarily a way to garner public support for the technology and infrastructure to build up the US's ICBM force, and to beat the Soviets in having a military force in space.
Remember, in the 60's people were envisioning manned space stations for the role that unmanned spy satellites later served.
The Outer Space Treaty happened in 1967 and forbade the militarization of space. I don't think it's a coincidence that 1964-67 was by far the apex of NASA's budget as a percentage of GDP.
It immediately started going down as it became clear that the treaty would be enacted. By the time of the last Apollo mission it was down to around 1.5%, and would drop to below 1% a few years after that.
In an alternate history of those events you might have had a Soviet constellation of nuclear-armed satellites in LEO by the 80's, making a first strike a lot more appetizing.
If we spent our money on nothing except Apollo Program type projects, the world would be imaginably different today. We could very well be living in the sci-fi future that many living through the 60s would have expected to see emerge over the next 60 years. If you told them that, instead, in 60 years we'd be struggling to achieve a manned flyby of the Moon, not a soul would have believed you.
Think about this another way - if we had decided to pass on the geopolitical stupidity, we could have afforded a program (with no increase in spending) of more than 6x the scale of the Apollo Program. It's really tantalizing to think about what that could have been like. Alas that's for the other timeline where humanity is already on the verge of constructing a Dyson Sphere. In this one, maybe we'll finally manage to achieve a manned Moon flyby sometime soon.
you're comparing something to one of the most grossly mismanaged loss-of-value wars the United States was ever involved in such a way as to demonstrate thrift.
the Vietnam war represents one of the largest financial and strategic blunders of US history. Without considering long-term post-war expenses we spent an adjusted trillion dollars on that war and got nearly nothing to show for it except for a lot of abused and tired veterans.
[1] - https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/13/cost-of-war-...
"U.S. To Give Every Iraqi $3,544.91, Let Free-Market Capitalism Do The Rest" https://www.theonion.com/u-s-to-give-every-iraqi-3-544-91-le...
http://steveharoz.com/blog/2012/science-and-war-visualizing-...
A program that isn't worth doing remains not worth doing even if there are larger programs that also weren't worth doing.
1) You aren't seriously looking at the political situation. There are actual budget problems without going to find imaginary ones.
2) You're representing a perspective that clearly has no political power, and you're representing it by attacking one of the easiest programs to justify. If you've got no political power, it makes more sense to attack weak opposing positions.
Finding wasteful US government spending is like shooting fish in a barrel; the forever wars alone are enough to harp on for decades. But you're going to try and launch an attack on the space program, which did at least advance the state of humanity? You're setting yourself up to look silly.
[0] It is already closer to 35 trillion, I wish my salary grew that quickly.
[1] _trampeltier's link
War is destructive by nature, military campaigns are expensive, hurt both the attacker and the defender, and the only reason is that governments want to govern instead of the other governments. There are some beneficial side effects to war, but overall, it is all about destruction.
The space race, culminating in the moon landings was not destructive, it was about doing something that hasn't been done before. Sure it was a pissing context, but it was for progress, not destruction.
As for astronauts as heroes, it sure was part of the propaganda, but they were actually part of something great. Compare to war heroes, who, in different contexts, would be called mass murderers.
I am not into heroes and adulation in general, but should we make people heroes, I think astronauts are in a good spot. There are generally good people (it actually was an important criteria for selection), intelligent, hard working and healthy. And they put their lives on the line for something awesome.
Better than integrated circuits? Better than cheap air travel? The direct human impact of manned spaceflight has been very marginal.
Funny you mention that. The Apollo Guidance Computer was the first computer to use integrated circuits and is often used as an example of the major innovations the Apollo program contributed to.
/s, but this is why it happened.
> It has 38 nuclear power reactors in operation and 19 under construction1/. It has increased its number of operating reactors by more than ten times since 2000 and plans to bring five units into commercial operation this year alone. It is China, the fastest expanding nuclear power generator in the world.
-International Atomic Energy Agency
https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/how-china-has-become-the-world....
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-28/china-thorium-molten-...
You are "oohing and aahing" over vacuum tubes while humanity invents the microprocessor.
*Okay some of them don't want it cold.