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The Hittites. (The Sea Peoples?) The Parthians. The Romans. You're talking about a fertile patch near the birth of civilisation, of course it's going to have had an old and violent history.I contested the "Arab world was basically in a state of managed chaos" similar to the colonial era situation "since the Bronze Age" claim. The arab world (speaking of the areas) did quite well for close to a millenium before the colonial era. And Europe itself had a huge bloody history of course both until Westphalia (and, unfortunately) well after it - so if the arab world having wars and disputes before the colonial era can be said to be "managed chaos", then the same can be said of it.
>Gunpowder was invented in China.
It was still put to use for guns in a large scale in the west first. This just says that the Chinese and the Arabs missed the opportunity to adopt it first - it doesn't disprove that gunpowder was a key advantage for the european rise and dominance.
>Its empires were also colonising powers, so it's not like in an alternate timeline they wouldn't have expanded across the Atlantic.
In an alternative timeline they could even go to the moon first. In this timeline, they didn't benefit from the looting of a whole new continent with easy to defeat locals dying of gunpowder and sickness.