I wonder which of the thousands of satellites in orbit will be the first to fall when the weapon misses the target.
Well, the sky at that level is very roughly 10¹⁷m² large and there are roughly 10⁴ satellites, so that's simple: The odds of hitting one is 1 to 10¹³ if the average satellite is 1m² as seen from below. Many are bigger but I understand that there's a large number of microsatellites now. Say 10¹² if you think the average is bigger.