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Your calculation assumes that the other 60% of the time you get to keep your original investment, but there's a good chance that you lose it all.

This is also the calculation for an investor, and is not really relevant for an employee option holder.

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In fact, it sounds like the 40% includes all exits, including those that returned only 1x. That would mean that the 60% is all 0s, and that the chart shows a negative total return in all rows, without even discounting for the holding period.

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