The Wikipedia article didn't have any info on ramp time.
My understanding is it requires building enrichment facilitates, and processing materials. Is this not a multi-year effort?
My understanding is it requires building enrichment facilitates, and processing materials. Is this not a multi-year effort?
https://world-nuclear.org/focus/fukushima-daiichi-accident/j...
At the end of 2018 there was 9 tonnes of separated reactor-grade plutonium (about 66% fissile) stored domestically, plus a total of 36.6 t in the UK and France. That total of 45.6 t was a modest decrease from an estimated 47.3 t at the end of 2017.
Despite the name, "weapons grade plutonium" is not actually required to make a weapon. Japan could manufacture weapons of modest yield (comparable to those used against it in World War II) on a short timeline from reactor grade plutonium if it were willing to ignore the political reaction.
See this for a relatively brief technical explanation of using reactor-grade plutonium in weapons: "Reactor-Grade Plutonium Can be Used to Make Powerful and Reliable Nuclear Weapons" https://rlg.fas.org/980826-pu.htm
This is a much longer book discussion (PDF) of the same issue: "Reactor-Grade Plutonium and Weapons: Exploding The Myths" https://npolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Reactor-Grade...
If you have a strong civilian nuclear power program, the ramp up time is minimal (weeks to months), as fast breeder reactors are a dual use technology.
If the country also has a domestic space program, you can safely assume they are also working on building IRBM capabilities
My guess with minimal knowledge in the field is, weeks if they have a shut down FBR plant, months if they have a decommed FBR Plant. I feel like building a new one to 'ramp up' would either require more time or perhaps multiple smaller reactor projects working in parallel might do the job...
In all honesty, it feels like everyone's arming for something big - from UAE all the way to the US and China, every country is in the process of buying startups and firms working on dual use technology.
Every country seems to have some sort of a 5-10 year roadmap to modernize defense technology and logistics by 2035, yet I never saw this level of concentrated effort globally after 1989.
[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Japan-nuclear-resear...
That said, I sincerely hope my prediction is just paranoia and that I'm wrong.
It's UAE and Saudi's deal flow that got me worried recently. I'm seeing those guys everywhere in the defense tech space now, and if Saudi and UAE are stockpiling, then every other semi-competent regional power is as well.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24823846
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia_and_weapons_of_ma...
Imran Khan leaned pro-Qatar, which irked KSA, especially because IK turned down joining Saudi's coalition in Yemen.
It was around this time that KSA began charting it's own independent course, just like UAE.
I assume they haven’t actually tested a precision guided reentry vehicle, but that’s all they’re missing on the missile side.