> According to space research and development company Aerospace, the chances of being struck by an object from space are one in a trillion depending on where you live.
I have doubts about this, given that this _keeps happening_.
I have doubts about this, given that this _keeps happening_.
This incident makes ~15 cases of debris striking people or property since the start of the space age. In most of those the debris was found either washed up on shore or landed in some wide, open area like a farm, with only 4 of those incidents involving actual hits on humans/animals, 7 humans in total (5 sailors injured in one incident, a woman tapped on the shoulder, a boy getting hit in the head and toe, and a sheep being killed).
In the Long March's case, it is by design that the stages fall back down and often land near villages. It isn't an accident when they keep doing it despite obviously knowing that it would happen (thus the rocket debris warnings being issued prior to the launch).
I count these separately because of course you're at a higher risk of getting hit when the process by which you would get hit is actively controlled in such a way that would cause the chance to be higher.
In comparison, this debris strike was not intended, the battery was expected to fully burn up during reentry. The other incidents I cited were similar, they were all orbital debris that was not expected to make it back intact or hit an inhabited area.
ISS is in orbit, and the inclination of 51.6° means any debris can reenter at basically any point on the globe up to this latitude.
Extremely events do indeed happen regularly if you have enough rolls of the die.