The formation and revision of intuitions (2023) [pdf]

But unlike simpler situations starting a business isn't something with a known answer how it will go, so there you need to listen to your intuition, but in other cases like physics you should listen to the math and theory.

> I wonder if there is a benefit to sticking with our intuition even if we are wrong in the moment

The evidence or your reading of it could be wrong, and it saves you mental energy.

The thing with intuition vs arithmetic is that intuition sums up both conscious and unconscious knowledge. Often there’s more, deeper that happens unconsciously. So, in reality, a strong intuition may be fooled by otherwise simplistic arithmetic that fails to represent the essence of the intuition.

That is not to say that if your intuition results in incorrect arithmetic/logic it would make any sense to stick to it :))

> I wonder if there is a benefit to sticking with our intuition even if we are wrong in the moment

I don’t bother optimizing small costs out of my life

I feel like a lot of the time people's mathematically incorrect intuitions are exactly right if you were asking a slightly different question. What's abnormal is the person who's evaluating their intuition by asking tricky questions that aren't very compatible with how human thinking works. Notably nobody would ask questions in real life the way these trick questions are asked. I like the notion that the problem is in the asker!

Like the question in the article whether a person is more likely to be a banker or (banker and feminist). Probability says the former is a mathematical uncertainty. The human intuition gets it wrong but it's solving a different question, because the category of 'banker' is a type of person than (banker and feminist). The mathematically wrong answer that intuition gives is expressing which category makes more sense for the person, and it's right about that-- it is just not an answer that should be interpreted as a probability.

The human brain doesn't work on probabilities, but it will try to answer questions of them anyway, misapplying it's otherwise effective circuitry instead.