Cardio fitness is a strong, consistent predictor of morbidity and mortality
bjsm.bmj.com
bjsm.bmj.com
Then I overheard one of them (the fittest) say to a budding runner that he [should] do mostly easy sessions. Okay what’s easy to him? He said that so slow that it can feel awkward and unnatural. What?
Then I searched around and found out about Zone 2 and how you should do most of your work in that zone when building aerobic fitness. And that it is characterized by being able to hold a conversation, although strained.
I searched around and found atheletes like amateur ultrarunners say the same thing.
Then it hit me. I’ve probably been jogging a lot in Zone 3. Or higher? Because the harder you go the more benefit, right? That seems to be the basic logic for everything.[1] Relatively short, painful sessions. Have I been conditioning myself to associate cardio with more pain than is necessary for the average session?
So maybe I should just go on the stationary bike today, do a “conversatitional” (talk to myself) pace and listen to my audiobook for an hour? And try to not let my groin fall asleep.
[1] With nuances like go-to-failure for hypertrophy in weightlifting and more back-off-a-little for strength training.
Even just walking on an incline can get your heart rate into the right zone so you get cardiovascular benefits while being so low in fatigue that you can get a lot of volume in.
Eventually your fitness will increase such that you'll run out of incline and speeds you can walk and you'll have to jog to stay in the zone.
I don't know what the current research says, but I believe jogging is pretty hard on your joints vs running. I'd recommend hiking and fast walking as an alternative if you're looking to transition into running.
Most injuries from running come from repetitive motion overuse and are muscular. People go out way too hard then discover that their muscles are weak for running (especially hips and glutes). Easing into running and doing some weightlifting or bodyweight exercises to supplement can usually keep you injury free and running well into old age. Some research shows it actually reducing the onset of osteoarthritis.
I've only really been getting into it in the past ~6 weeks or so, so still a beginner. Just wanted to chime in and say that running while fat is totally doable and you just gotta ease into it and try to avoid pain! Discomfort might be a part of the process, but running slowly in zone 2 has become quite relaxing and a great part of my day, despite having hated running when I was in the best shape of my life.
I used to only run in zone 4-5 because I focused on speed and just assumed misery was a necessary part of the running experience. It's been a total blessing to learn that it doesn't need to be like that at all!
Hope you can find a good balance for what works for you as a heavier person. Listening to your body and knowing your limitations are super important. Just wanted to share my experience as a heavier guy too.
> around 30 years old
These two things go together. I'm almost 50 and in my experience you're not going to want to do this after 40 but it depends on many factors (shoes, joint health, body mechanics, what you run on..).
I've just seen people my age and younger suggest that running while fat is too hard and give up on it but I've started to enjoy it for the first time in my life despite my weight.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
It also makes them more likely to feel pain, since pain has biological, psychological, and social inputs.
But I don't think that way now. I want to enjoy moving. I want to move playfully and powerfully and efficiently. Exercise until it feels good, not until it feels bad. Love the body you have and take care of it and build it up, rather than hate-exercising to change it.
Then I moved to a bike-friendly country and I started biking all the time. 30 minutes commute one way, 30 minutes back. I live right next to subway but god I hate public transport, and owning a car in this city is a massive headache.
Often I go for a small one-hour ride in the evening. I put on some music, start cycling, and thinking about things. I feel like I get into some kind of trance. When sitting at home I constantly feel "now what now what now what now what", but while cycling, I get into a rhythm and often; not always, but often; I get into a state where my thoughts kinda flow more easily, I can just think about something happy and focus on it, or maybe listen to the music. I live in a low-density area with biking lanes separated from most car traffic, so sometimes I get drunk or high and go cycling, which feels amazing - I have to focus and make it through one intersection, and after that the worst thing that can possibly happen is falling off the bike and getting a few bruises.
Sometimes I go for longer whole-day trips. When I reach the point of complete exhaustion the part of my brain that constantly worries about getting fired or possible WW3 shuts down and it's like being high but without drugs. I plan these trips so that I fight against the wind on my way "there" and then enjoy the help of the wind on my way back which becomes almost efforless. When I come home exhausted, the body experiences relaxation in ways impossible to achieve in other ways.
If you want advice, from my experience: 1. Stationary machines are a scam, 90% of pleasure comes from being outside. 2. Do exercise at a pace "I could keep on going like this forever" and then after an hour "oh not anymore" 3. Get something that keeps you entertained but doesn't require your attention. I don't recommend audiobooks because you need to keep actively listening. I recommend music or radio because if you zone out and stop listening, nothing bad happens. And sometimes try not having anything at all, just watch all the things around you.
I'm the only one among my friends that do this, and I find this to be highly correlated with my running style: Really comfortable pace 7-10km through local forests, only (I tend to do more 10km more than 7km as I like it so much).
I learned this one time when I ran on a threadmill and realized the enormous difference between a slight variation in speed (from 11 to 9 km/h in my case, but the exact numbers don't matter), where I realized with this slight change I could go on indefinitely instead of being quickly exhausted.
But gradually I could hold a lower heart rate while running and now my zone 2 runs are actually faster than my fastest pace I could hold a year ago. Now I enjoy running more than cycling (though my fitness are still probably mostly derived by cycling).
To explain why harder isn't better: improvement in running comes only a little from muscular strength, so that mental model is bad.
Improvement is primarily based on aerobic development of the cardiovascular system. This is your body's ability to burn mostly-fat with oxygen, deliver the energy (ATP molecules) to muscles, and remove waste products. So you develop more capillaries, your heart gets literally stronger, and this fat-burning pathway gets more efficient.
Going too hard pushes into the anaerobic zone (burning sugar without oxygen). This is good training in some ways, but it can be counterproductive to aerobic development and, most important, it's too hard to do very much volume so the amount of stimulus is limited. By keeping it easy, you can do a higher volume of purely aerobic stimulus.
I have been exclusively an anaerobic athlete for the past two years and my aerobic fitness has dropped to a shockingly low level. But I am oddly comfortable at 180-190bpm
I am slowly building in more aerobic cardio into my training but man cardio is just such a chore for me. It's always the first to go so it takes constant maintenance and it's time consuming...
My goal was strengthening hip (one side has a three plates and a few screws in it) and knee mobility, with losing weight being an extra that I only reach this spring due to diet changes. I did find my Zone 2, where I can chat with a running buddy, and slowly extended the distances I run: Now 5km at 5:40m/km are the norm and 10km is just as possible. Injury-free so far and no ambition for a Marathon. The thing I now have to work at is the cadence which I (at 193cm) had trouble with on the bike as well, but shorter strides at a higher cadence are important to prevent knee injuries.
Whatever you do, I think sticking to it at least three times a week so you look forward for the next run, feel well during it and keep healthy. This is more important than beating records or running insane distances. Those goals are for those with the right genetics.
That's really the opposite of what sports are supposed to be for 99.9% of the people. Who cares how life and training of some fastest guy in XYZ category looks like? Go at your pace, progress slowly also at your pace, also good strategy for life overall. You also don't take tips for driving in traffic from top formula 1 driver, do you, sorta worse than useless.
I do naturally push myself a bit when I run alone, to the point when even say 5-6km run makes me tired and drenched in sweat, but certainly not first 10-20 runs after some lull (like now broken foot, starting gently next week). And running is really just training for other more adrenaline sports for me, not chasing kms and preparing for races. But never pushing beyond whats OK for my body, and with experience one knows oneself very well in this regard.
I now cycle for the same reasons as you do, although it's not as consistently intense as I would like.
when i've been running i do similar. though i also do accellerate a bit and slow down, because its... more fun.
Of course, almost no-one adheres to it unless they are already well practiced. It's just deeply ingrained in peoples heads that "only if it's hard or painful it must work". Then people check out of running because it feels like crap, which it does if you always push too hard.
In my opinion, three of the most important rules are:
- slow down! does it feel "too slow"? Great, that's the right speed for most runs
- small steps! feels awkward at first, but is sooo much more efficient and soo much better for your joints
- land on mid- or forefoot (that happens mostly automatically with small steps)
Yes - this meme is extremely prevalent and extremely effective at putting people off exercise.
"Running" in the sport of "Running" means something different than "running" on the playground (which is more akin to sprinting).
I've had some knee pain recently so I've not been running much, focusing instead on knee strengthening exercise. On my last run I discovered this weird phenomenon were my knees stopped hurting if I ran faster with longer strides, it felt like I was "rolling through" each step which seemed less demanding for my knees. Perhaps my slow running style is just poor.
The two sports also complements each other very well since the muscle groups support each other and cardiovascular side of things are the same.
Low impact, good for core strength. Zone 2 approved.
If you are wealthy they make specific back packs or I bought a tacti-cool one on Temu for cheap.
Outlive by Peter Attia is pretty good for more ideas on how to lengthen the mobile portion of your life.
1. You want to land on the mid-foot. Heel-striking puts a lot of pressure up you leg and joints as you are basically braking with every step. Forefoot strike puts a lot of pressure on your calf and achilles as you have to 'bounce' on every foot-strike to support your body weight. A mid-foot strike is the most efficient transition of energy into and back out of the ground for forward motion. Small steps help you to find a mid-foot strike, large steps (over-striding) will create a heel-strike.
2. For lots of people taking up 'running' they (naturally) believe that they should run. But for many, running continuously will be beyond their zone-2 cardio. It's much easier to start with a jog/walk and build up. In the UK we have a brilliant app called 'couch-to-5k' which is a progressive build from essentially no fitness (walking some distance) up to being able to continuously jog for 5k.
Midfoot strike - heel and ball land same time
Forefoot strike - ball of foot lands first
Both of these are hard to do in typical "running shoes" which build a significant amount of rubber into the heel, while also being fairly thin up front.
Zone 2 is all about giving the mitochondries a chance to get better at providing a steady energy flow over a long time, mainly by optimizing for burning fat as fuel instead of glucose, avoiding lactate accumulation during the process [3].
In between, in zones 3 & 4, you get a little of both those ends of the spectrum, it's still helpful to a degree, but it's not really optimized: that why it's deemed preferable to spend the bulk of your training time in either your zone 2 or zone 5.
The ideal composition of a training period seems like 90% zone 2 and 10% zone 5, and going for more than 1h of zone 5 per week seems not that interesting. Also, mixing zone 2 and zone 5 in the same training session is not ideal, it's better to stay focused on one thing at at time.
[1] https://peterattiamd.com/category/exercise/high-intensity-zo...
[2] https://peterattiamd.com/category/exercise/vo2-max/
[3] https://peterattiamd.com/category/exercise/aerobic-zone-2-tr...
I created a custom "track" on TrainerDay and spend about 20 minutes 2-3 times a week doing this.
It feels like dying - but I like being able to extract the most value out of the lowest time investment
Biking to work using Strava is like this for me.
It gamifies exercise in a very addictive manner. Getting a PR, being quickest on a segment or becoming a local legend. There is always someone or something to beat.
Besides, I got records and fastest times when e.g. wind was at my back or the lights all went my way - so I knew it wasn't just my effort & just happenstance.
I still use Strava - mostly as a personal blog of my efforts & take a picture of wildlife or crazy videos to share with others sometimes.
Since you can dial in the assist, it basically turns a regular bike into an exercise bike. Or conversely, an exercise bike that actually rides around outside. If I want to fry my legs on a hill, I can drop the assist and really feel the grind. If I want to take it easy on the hill back home though, I can boost the assist so that it takes practically no effort.
It's just this amazing tool that reliably will trick your brain into working out. You take the ebike out because it is so effortless to ride, but inevitably you end up lowering the assist to feel the burn a bit on your rides.
Another way to look at this: "ideal" has different definitions depending on whether it's maintainable for any given individual, as well as a definition for "what's the best way to do this if you take willpower out of the equation?"
Seriously, I have a friend who assumes that exercise == going to the gym... and she hates the gym. But she keeps trying to force that round peg into a square hole!
I've tried asking her, "well, do you like tennis? Dancing? Rock climbing?" But apparently those don't count.
Then occupationally I try to do sprints uphill, walk down. Get ready for another uphill sprint. I have been lazy on that unfortunately.
There is also a lot of evidence that sprinting is really good. I mean if you look at the bodies of Olympic sprinters vs Olympic runners, what do you want to develop?
[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/4xioza/track_cyclists...
- get good shoes! this is probably the only piece of equipment you need (with a wind/rain jacket). Go to a shop when you can get advice. For me, flat soles is the way to go but I know there is debate on that question. Change them after 1000km at max (I've seen 500 km recommendation)
- follow the advice above zone 2 / zone 5 training. If unsure, slow down !
- avoid pain as much as possible otherwise your body will associate pain and run and you end up giving up (maybe not today, not tomorrow but one day for sure)
- buy a jumping rope and practice (you'll be amazed on the resulting spring effect while running)
- prefer solo session (group sessions are good if you want to talk but the most important thing is to run at your very own pace). you are better with some music or interesting podcasts
- vary the routes as much as possible. Even if you have only one route, start it from time to time on the other direction. There is no better training than on a route you don't know. Always running the same route is part of the reason you may quit.
- start your chronometer at the beginning of the session and try to forget it.
- find a friend and do some bike and run session from time to time (one run, one on the bike for like 20 minutes and then you change). It allows you to make longer run and recover while on the bike.
/!\ Just an opinion here, I'm not a specialist, just a +/- 20y regular runner
I've spent a lot of time reading a lot about opinions and then looking at logs of professional athletes [1] (in cycling as I am most interested in that). My conclusion is that training comes down to:
1)do a lot of volume, the more the better
2)do some "hard stuff" - if those are hard intervals, longer "sweet spot" intervals or a a mix of those (like 5 minutes at threshold and then 15 seconds sprint, repeat n times) matters little
3)at pro level do some training specific to what you are going to do a lot in racing
1)is by far the most important and the most reliable predictor of overall fitness
[1] https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/pro-elite-training/14046 - is a nice thread with a lot of rides from whole weeks or months of training posted with power/heart rate data for various World Tour riders
[2]https://www.youtube.com/@sportscientist - Stephen Seiler's youtube channel; he has done work on analyzing how pro athletes train but his conclusions are very simplified and it seems made to sell "polarized" training idea. When you look at the details in the data no one trains like that, the final distribution is almost always pyramidal, not polarized
Zone 3/Tempo sessions can help to raise speed so that Z2 is faster for the same intensity.
Obviously lower intensity workouts can go for longer and the high z5 stuff for fairly short intervals across short sessions.
That's unfortunately not fully how it works. For maximum benefits, you would want to train your aerobic energy system, and to do that without risking injury, zone 2 is the recommended zone. The claim is that pain is gain, but more often than not, pain is your body telling you you are over the limit. By the description of your running experience, you were possibly closer to zone 4.
Of course, the body gets lazy, so you will want to vary your training. Repeat the same type of load, and your body will get efficient operating at that load, meaning your fitness gains will eventually stagnate. That's where the other zones come in.
At the zone 3/4 threshold you start using your anaerobic energy system more, with a stronger build-up of lactic acid as a by-product. Training in that range means your body will get more efficient at faster-paced work. Of course, as you build-up lactic acid, it also means that it is not a pace you can sustain.
But if you do short bursts of exercise at the lower-end of the anaerobic zone, you are actually contributing to making you aerobic energy system more efficient, without over-straining your body too much. And it's exactly the type of exercise variation your body needs to not get into the "lazy" mode.
The traditional way of approaching that is to have a base of zone 2 days (say 80% of your runs), and a few days of zone 3/low 4 days (say 20% of your runs), so that you alternate your loads.
Another approach with similar benefits, especially if you train less often, is the Fartlek approach, developed in Sweden in the 1930s. That's a type of training where you mix-up the load intensity during your runs, in about the same proportions. Fartlek means "speed-play", and it describes the method well. It's generally about approaching your training as you feel it that day. At some point during your run you might decided to increase the pace for a short time. Or you see a small hill that you can decide to attack at a faster pace, thereby changing your training zone. It's all about having fun and making your trainings less boring.
There was this belief in some circles until not that long ago that if you would enter a zone 3 or zone 4 training load during a zone 2 training day, you would mostly destroy the benefits of a "pure" zone 2 training. (Or the other way around, having some zone 2 stretches on zone 3/4 days). That turned out to be nonsense.
All in all, for good progress, and against boredom, Fartlek is the way to go, all the while keeping the bulk of your training in zone 2.
Some schools of training were maintaining for a long time that the process was fairly black and white, and that both systems should be trained separately, or else you would loose the training benefit of either.. Nature is rarely so stubbornly segregated, and, as it turns out, mixed training is perfectly fine.
Aerobic training will help you increase your anaerobic threshold, but training slightly above the threshold can be more efficient at increasing that threshold, if you are fit enough to recover from the lactic build-up before your next training. (Or if you have the luxury to increase your resting period so that you are fully recovered before you train again)
Anaerobic training will improve your anaerobic tolerance, but a good aerobic base will also help you improve your anaerobic tolerance, as your body will become more efficient at recycling the lactic acid back into ATP, delaying the moment when your muscles will be too saturated to function at the required level.
In general, while exercising, your muscles are using both ATP production means, aerobic and anaerobic. So, once more, you can see that by going slightly above your lactate threshold (but still with a good aerobic energy contribution) you are also contributing to improve your anaerobic tolerance, by staying longer in a range where your body needs to work harder to deal with the excess lactic build up. (Longer than a "pure" anaerobic training that cannot be sustained)
Its weird though because HIIT is meant to be amazing for your body as well.
I suppose a mixture of both is good, and if I really think about it, we pretty much evolved to do that - low energy wandering to find prey, medium energy to chase prey and exhaust it, brief high intensity to catch up and finish the job. Then you get dinner.
Man, I should go back to the gym.
Another trick was to focus on the whole body, I had a bad back but ran all my life like this, I now do light deadlift to restore better posture and better range of motion. Bad posture will make your muscle shrink and impede your running too.
I understood the idea was that by running / cycling mostly in zone 2, you can put in more distance / time as you can recover more easily. It would not be possible to bike 30 hours in a week in zone 3, you would trash yourself.
But for someone like me, biking like 6-8 hours a week, I could easily do a lot of higher intensity, recovery time is not a bottleneck, other obligations in life are. So I really wonder if that still applies if you're only running / biking a few hours per week?
I was "forced" into biking a few years ago (had an injury that prevented running) and had the same problem with the groin. I thought it was a natural thing with biking, but it can actually be quite bad for you in the long run, and it's very fixable! Sitting position and saddle makes a huge difference. Ofc position is the cheaper thing to fix, but saddle is easier.
Go to a bike shop and explain the problem and they'll help you find a saddle that fits you, don't go on with getting your groin numbed.
Your zone 2 speed will change over time. I do most of my training in zone 1 now, and that’s like a 9 minute per mile pace. When I started more than 15 years ago a 9 minute mile felt like death. Patience. This takes a lot of time.
As I understand it you can increase vo2max with exactly the type of training you are describing. Long efforts at zone2 can improve vo2 max, but the best improvements involve training at higher zones.
I certainly remember all the stories / headlines "walking is as good as running for cardiovascular health" etc which support the "just train zone 2" approach, but this study seems to me (a layperson) to contradict that.
Can anybody who is more versed in the research chime in? Does this study suggest that HIIT could reduce all cause mortality by improving vo2 max which improves baseline CRF (which is the value this the meta-analysis actually examined)?
You can sustainably improve your cardiovascular health by just slowly increasing your volume of work done at 120-150 bpm over time. Say start with a program like Couch to 5k, then slowly add a day of light jogging here and there, adding 5 minutes here and there, until you're jogging 30+ miles per week.
If you want to more "optimally" improve your cardiovascular fitness, after building an aerobic base as above for 12+ weeks, you can introduce a high intensity session to get some of the unique benefits of those, but your low intensity steady state zone 2 stuff should remain at least 80% of your time spent endurance training.
It's only recently when I learned about Zone 2 training that I came to understand that my training approach has always been backwards. I have always indexed my pace on what has always been a "respectable" mile time, on the assumption that if I run at that pace over and over, eventually I'll be able to go for longer at that pace. And that kind of is true, but not ever to the extent I can keep up with my wife.
Now, I am attempting to approach my running from a "time spent running > speed", and I'm finding that I indeed can run for 40+ minutes straight with no stopping, at a much lower pace than what I had been, and that it is much easier to make progress by running slowly for 40 minutes and gradually increase my pace over time than it is to run quickly for as long as I can and gradually increase the distance.
I prefer it since it's at a pace where you can easily use your phone/browse the web at the same time.
Walking is also far more practical given that you walk 99% of the time in modern society. Might as well train for the thing you actually functionally do
If you only run 30 minutes once a week, you won't see as many gains if you do it in zone 2 than zone 3/4. But you also can't run 10h/w zone 4/5, so that's where the zone 2 comes into play. It allows to increase volume without increasing fatigue/risk of injury too much.
- chasing an animal during hunting;
- being chased by a beast;
- playing.
You don't have to really run for good cardio fitnes. In addition to HIIT, now there's IWT (Interval Walking Training), which yields similar results. Also, slow running seems to be more beneficial, too [0].
People implying that the study shows only correlation really don't seem to understand how we establish causality in science.
I think that in science we have to be extra careful just what we are saying. And saying that this study proves causality would be wrong. I am sure there are other studies that could (do?) prove it but this statistical analysis can only prove correlation.
There's no reasonable path to reverse-causality with smoking. "People prone to developing lung cancer are more likely to take up smoking" doesn't really make sense.
On the other hand, "Fat and unhealthy people are more prone not to exercise" is a reasonable reverse-causality position, for all kind of reasons. Your knees hurt, you're self-conscious, it's extremely uncomfortable, your fat jiggles, etc.
I'm not saying direct causality doesn't exist here, I'm just saying that reverse-causality is reasonable, whereas with smoking it is not. Assuming causation from this particular correlation is harder than it is with smoking.
I think that we just have to look at the best explanation for the current data to determine causality, but it’s always a guess.
While "causality" is a strong word in the sentence above, the data is much stronger than simple correlation. Of course, outright causality has not been established, but the evidence to determine a predictive association is strong.
If you’re on the fence and reading this definitely give it another shot
- a tiny step to do small one leg squat
- a kettle bell or any weight for deadlift
doing 10 repetition at low speed, low intensity[0] of the two abose everytime you get bored, anxious, or lost on a youtube rabbithole will feel like nothing, yet, over the week you'll start to feel muscle grow slowly, less joint pain, better posture, better ability to move, everything will feel easier thus having a better mood too.once in the morning, once in the evening.. or maybe more as one sees fit, until you feel the drive to do more (usually a month of slow and pleasurable exercise will naturally lead to a desire to try more)
[0] real slow, like taichi slow.. no muscle burn, no fast breathing..
It's stats on stats on stats and essentially creates a "character health" panel for your own body. Charts, metrics, real time tracking and exportable data. There are achievement badges and social connections if that's your thing too (good for you and your SO).
For me, being able to see real-time metrics and real time improvement really amped up my motivation to go out an exercise. Rewards were no longer this mysterious ethereal thing that will maybe show up sometime in the future if I keep grinding. Day by day, I could see improvement and sure enough could feel it too.
Also, for most of the weenies here, an $800 purchase isn't too rough. They have decent $500 and $300 dollar options, but the available amount stats and tracking goes down.
IMO, it's all about what drives someone - if they are going to be more motivated by someone training them, then they should do that. But if they are going to have more longevity by paying for an overpriced watch, maybe that's the better choice. Maybe even both? One thing is for sure - speaking in absolutes doesn't apply here.
Pretty much any of the more recent Forerunner series will do. The Forerunner 165 starts at $250 and the Forerunner 255 has been discounted to this level several times as well. They both have nearly all the available metrics and many sports modes, as well as triathlon modes most of us probably never need. They sync with the same (free) Garmin Connect smartphone app and cloud service.
So with any of these watches, you can sample the Garmin features. Upgrading to a more expensive watch later would mostly be for case material and size, aesthetics, or conspicuous consumption reasons.
The biggest functional difference between their lower price and expensive watches is that they limit on-watch mapping to only the expensive watches starting around $400-600 when on sale. The cheaper watches can only show a "breadcrumb" trail of your path in an ongoing activity, but no mapping of the surrounding terrain, roads, or landmarks.
There is also a funny distinction where their "outdoor" watches work a bit differently than their "health fitness" watches, developed in separate product divisions. But, these differences seem to be narrowing in recent years.
The other major feature tier is "music" which is a roughly $50-100 premium for the Forerunner 165 and 255 having non-music and music variants. This is where the watch can store and play music through bluetooth headphones, without a phone being present.
Keeping it unchanged is another kind of logical error.
The same scepticism would not be brought against many "hard science" experiments, even though they do the exact same thing, falsify alternative explanations until they have high certainty that they have causality.
It sounds like I can hit you a 1,000 times, you feel pain a 1,000 times and you still don't believe there's a causality.
"Every time we send 5 fire trucks to a fire, the damage is 10x than when we only send one fire truck. We've observed this 1000 times. And still you don't believe that the fire trucks are causing the damage."
In this case it should be absolutely clear that A (lots of trucks) aren't causing B (lots of damage), but rather a third aspect, C (size of fire) is causing both A and B. Insisting that A causes B will result in completely counterproductive interventions, like "send only one truck to all fires".
The same thing could be true for cardiovascular fitness. If people are sick, they're much less likely to running or hiking up a mountain. So rather than poor cardio fitness (A) causing high mortality (B), it could be that a third thing, sickness (C) is causing both A and B. If that is the case, then shaming people who are sick into trying to exercise, instead of making them healthy enough so that they feel like running, is likely to make things worse rather than better.
How do you tell the difference? Well the "gold standard" is randomized controlled trials. Pick 3,000 random people. Tell 1000 of them to exercise more, and 1000 of them to exercise less, and 1000 leave alone, and compare. If the "exercise more" group is healthier at the end of 10 years, that's decent evidence that "exercise more" is a useful intervention.
Failing that, you can think of other possible confounding factors and control for them. Don't just ask how much they exercise; ask how old they are, and how well they are, how stressed they are, and loads of other factors which might both cause both A and B, and use statistical methods to detect whether one of those factors is actually a better explanation than "A -> B".
Or perhaps you don’t fully understand the challenges of establishing causality? Just because an intervention causes an improvement in some bio markers that are associated with lower mortality (unfortunately) does not mean that the intervention will cause lower mortality.
The classic example is vitamin D supplements: Higher vitamin D levels are associated with lower mortality in many medical conditions. Vitamin D supplements increase vitamin D levels. But vitamin D supplements seldom lower mortality.
Why? Probably because vitamin D is produced in the skin when we are in the sun. The more healthy subpopulation of any study will typically spend more time outside, so they will have higher vitamin D levels. But it’s (relative) health that causes higher vitamin D, not the other way around.
The only way to reliably establish causality is really an end-to-end randomized controlled trial (RCT). Stitching together two RCTs is not sufficient.
(Not saying that exercise does not lower mortality BTW, just that it’s complicated, and a study such as this is probably picking up two signals: one causal and one purely correlational.)
> Or perhaps you don’t fully understand the challenges of establishing causality? Just because an intervention causes an improvement in some bio markers that are associated with lower mortality (unfortunately) does not mean that the intervention will cause lower mortality.
> The classic example is vitamin D supplements: Higher vitamin D levels are associated with lower mortality in many medical conditions. Vitamin D supplements increase vitamin D levels. But vitamin D supplements seldom lower mortality.
That is quite a simplification. The research as far as I know is that too low Vitamin D levels are associated with higher mortality, but that supplementation above a certain level is meaningless (and most caucasians can get those levels through normal sun exposure). So yes vitamin D supplements in general don't improve mortality.
Note also the situation here is completely different. The link between mortality and morbidity markers and exercise have been established in other studies. The study here establishes that this directly translates to a correlation between fitness and mortality. So in a way it's the opposite of the vitamin D case.
> Why? Probably because vitamin D is produced in the skin when we are in the sun. The more healthy subpopulation of any study will typically spend more time outside, so they will have higher vitamin D levels. But it’s (relative) health that causes higher vitamin D, not the other way around.
You realise that you are proclaiming causality here?
> The only way to reliably establish causality is really an end-to-end randomized controlled trial (RCT). Stitching together two RCTs is not sufficient.
A RCT does not establish causality. That's essentially my point. A single study/experiment never proofs causality. You need a theory to explain the causality and multiple studies that falsify other possible causality mechanisms. That has been done extensively for excercise and morbity/mortality, the current study just establishes that this also correlates in the bigger picture. So yes the study itself does not "proof" causality, it's just a piece in the bigger puzzle of causality.
> (Not saying that exercise does not lower mortality BTW, just that it’s complicated, and a study such as this is probably picking up two signals: one causal and one purely correlational.)
> You realise that you are proclaiming causality here?
Yes, with emphasis on the word probably. Just like I will happily proclaim that exercise probably lowers mortality.
> A RCT does not establish causality. That's essentially my point. A single study/experiment never proofs causality. You need a theory to explain the causality and multiple studies that falsify other possible causality mechanisms. That has been done extensively for excercise and morbity/mortality, the current study just establishes that this also correlates in the bigger picture. So yes the study itself does not "proof" causality, it's just a piece in the bigger puzzle of causality.
The beauty of an end-to-end RCT is that it effectively neutralizes other possible causality mechanisms. You do not seem to appreciate this. My impression is that your reasoning is more in line with evidence based medicine (EBM), rather than the hypothetico-deductive method that I personally subscribe to. In my way of thinking there will never be definitive “proof” of causality, but I will happily take a drug that has gone through sufficiently powerful RCTs that failed to prove its ineffectiveness (and harm).
This might be a good heuristic for assigning confidence to results, but in theory, an RCT absolutely does establish causality, assuming internal, external, construct, and statistical validity of the study.
Multiple studies may not be better than one good study (assuming the above), which can be tested by looking at the leverage in a meta-anlaysis.
Having a theory is kind of orthogonal to a study finding a true positive result. Almost every published study, true or false, invokes some kind of theory, true or false. There is a joke in the soft sciences along the lines that you make up a new theory for every study.
This is where explaining how causality is established really helps people understand what they are reading better, especially when confronted with something that is not light reading and summarizes a much larger, even heavier read. In other words, instead of saying people don't understand, maybe help people to understand.
When it takes 50 years, the statistic probably doesn't hold because you will be dead by then due to the negative influence of smoking on your health.
EDIT: Now that I've seen the replies, I realize that this is from a very low baseline. I'm personally going to the gym four to five days a week already and my own cardiovascular fitness has not seen much of an improvement in many months.
The typical human body is very responsive when pushed.
9 weeks. I have basic fitness but have never been close to completing a 5km run (I think I finally realised I have breathing issues - seeing an ENT soon).
The human body can make incredible cardiovascular leaps when starting from a relatively low point
My VO2 max as reported by my Apple Watch has been making steady gains, though I'm still far below average for my age.
I didn't train hard, just consistently.
If you've never lifted before and you hit the gym consistently and have the proper diet, you will get some serious "newb gains." The first year can be amazing.
But if you've lifted seriously for a decade, it's totally different. Muscle mass is very hard to add now.
Cardio gains from a coach potato introducing a serious routine will be incredible. I went from not being able to run more than 30 seconds to running a 5k in 4-5 months, and that's without pushing myself extremely hard.
The point is about how the body adapts.
The first few weeks, at the end of a 10 minute sprint, my heart would be racing and I would be out of breath for 5 minutes after arrival.
I was amazed after 2 months of doing the same thing I wasn't out of breath, it took maybe 1 minute for my heart rate to slow back down.
Most humans are just incredibly bad at impulse control.
That said, people can make pretty rapid weight loss without eating. skip eating 1 day a week and that is 30 lbs a year for an average obese man. skip 2 days/week and that is 60 lbs/year.
Instead, they are reinforcing that the path is clear, and the the barriers Are entirely psychological. Effort to build habits, effort to exert self control, effort to find solutions when you stumble.
If people are looking and waiting for a strategy that makes weight loss easier than inaction, they are bound for disappointment.
Some rare people find a passion that makes the process of getting healthy and fit more fun and easy than getting fatter, but that is exceedingly rare.
Just eat less and burn more calories.
> people can make pretty rapid weight loss without eating
Your suggestion is not sustainable. A staggering 90+% of people regain all weight loss a year after their diet ends. Seriously, who is not going to eat for two days per week? Your mental health would be a wreck. Can you do it? I cannot.I think conflating between mental health and eating is at the heart of the obesity epidemic. Nobody will die if they skip a few meals. They will suffer some moderate discomfort depending on how much they fixate on it.
I can go a week without eating and a few days is trivial. The longest a human has gone without food is 381 days and they lost 275 lbs
When we're bombarded with advertisements of highly caloric, processed, sugary foods engineered to flood our taste buds and trigger dopamine, we can't be surprised that people get addicted to it. Combine that with forms of entertainment, transportation, and a work culture that keep us sedentary, and it's no wonder many people struggle with being physically healthy.
People aren't going back to the farms, so we need to adopt new behaviors and norms around self control. There is simply no viable alternative.
There are plenty which are unrelated to self-control or personal discipline. One is a sugar tax (not a huge fan personally but it exists).
One I do like is to regulate the advertising and labeling of food. Frankly I'd like to know how many calories I'm eating or being persuaded to eat, pretty much all the time. This is a work in progress with the FDA gradually expanding the types of restaurants that are required to disclose caloric and nutrition info about their food. Frankly I'd like to see it required in advertisements too, if you're advertising a pizza, the advertisement should disclose that there are 2,000 calories in that pizza, many people actually are not aware.
Not that I ever thought they were serving health food at the Cheesecake Factory, but I recently learned that their peanut butter cheesecake is 1650 calories per slice! Almost a full day's calories in one slice of cake! Nearly everyone I've talked to about it knew it was a gut buster but no one guessed that high.
Those cheesecakes are only for special occasions now and it's because C.F. is required to disclose calories, I'd be fatter if not for this simple government intervention. Nothing to do with self control. Apologies to C.F. but with the nation's obesity rate cresting 50% I consider this a wholly reasonable imposition on their free speech rights or whatever.
There is no amount of labeling that will make a different if there isn't a human expressing agency to read the label and take action.
I think there are tons of helpful strategies, but the critical infrastructure t Needed is more self actualized agency.
This isn't an insult or dismissal, but a hope we can all become better humans.
How is eating a cake from a store "nothing to do with self control". It's not like you were buying vegetables and turns out big sugar made the vegetables be worse for you. You not knowing if the cake was 800 calories or 1.6k calories makes it no less about self control. Even to avoid eating it at 1.6k, it's still all just self control.
I mean this is common sense, the more clearly you understand the negatives of an action, the more likely you are to avoid it. And we have plenty of evidence that this works to alter people's behavior through looking at the effects of e.g. cigarette labeling.
Like up until the 1950s we actually didn't have good evidence that cigarettes were bad for you, and doctors actually got on TV and endorsed specific brands, so a lot of people weren't sure. Eventually the studies were produced and doctors started recommending against smoking and smoking started to decline. It didn't decline because people became Badass Willpower Monks, it declined because they were given access to more and better information.
I don't think it is very sustainable to have 50% of the population on a biologic medication to help self control, but hopefully it will help individuals and societies change norms.
Being fit is not just about low fat. It requires a similar discipline required to control what you eat.
Why it's dropping is still a n mystery though.
Nevertheless, the solution is still the same: eat less.
The study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10445668/
Or make life harder! Quit the elevator. Quit the automatic transmission (and car). Quit the online shopping.
Making some progress with self-checkouts and pointless lineups at airports.
Less jokingly (hard to outrun a bad diet) but more pedanticly: drinking less (alcohol and calorific beverages) might be a better start than eating less.
It seems that a largely sedentary lifestyle free from exertion matches both.
It would be insightful to see the sensitivity analysis for BMR with respect to strength, activity, muscle mass, ect.
I know there is a body of data about environmental hormones and BMR, ect, but my understanding is that the impact is barely measurable with large sample sizes. I expect that it can't hold a candle to activity. In my personal experience, my BMR can easily modulate by 1000 calories based on body composition and behavior. That is a huge impact.
"It is also possible that the long-term reduction in BMR represents methodological artefacts. In the early years, measurements of BMR were often made using mouthpieces to collect respiratory gases, and recently such devices have been shown to elevate BMR by around 6%. A second possibility is that early measurements paid less attention to controlling ambient temperature to ensure individuals were at thermoneutral temperatures."
lower testosterone = lower lean body mass (you gain tens of pounds of muscle on TRT even without exercising)
lower lean body mass = lower BMR. an average doughy 200 pound guy and a 200 pound athlete have vastly different caloric requirements.
The authors suggest that the decreased consumption of saturated fats over the last 30+ years is likely to contribute to the reduction in basal metabolic rate and gains in weight. The mouse model component of the study provides some support.
Well compared to the food industry industry that's nothing. Incidentally they learned their trade from the tobacco industry who invested heavily in the junk food industry in the 60s. [1]
All to say, much of modern food (and the advertising around it) is designed to get people hooked on junk food from a very early age. So saying just eat less is a simplistic solution that requires people to act against a conditioning that has been aggressively imprinted on them from a very early age.
[1] https://lsa.umich.edu/psych/news-events/all-news/faculty-new...
Every solution to every problem involves overcoming ones own detrimental impulses in favor of positive ones.
People are faced with the choice between eating more or living longer, and nearly everyone knows it.
There is a reason why life expectancy was dropping in the US years before covid hit.
There was a ted talk that said bicycle helmet laws would kill more people than save.
The reasoning was preventing people from riding would also prevent increased fitness, and more lives were lost from that than saved from accidents.
EDIT: I think this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07o-TASvIxY
They might be more inclined to cycle because they don’t need to wear a helmet.
After years of cycling with helmet you get so used to it and it doesn’t bother you. But how many skip the bike because they never got used to wearing a helmet?
not riding a bike because a helmet is ??uncomfortable?? is ridiculous and probably self-selecting
There isn’t going to be anyone consciously thinking “I’m not gonna ride because I have to wear a helmet” but instead “eh I can’t be bothered riding” without digging too much in to why.
It was only a week but it was so refreshing. I think about this experience daily when driving because I think of how much time would be saved if people just knew absolutely when to take their turn and took it; instead of processing each decision and deciding based on their current mood. People knew the damn rules and norms.
So, I think it’s a function of having a critical mass, being necessary, and being embedded already as a norm. I don’t believe a city could make riding without a helmet legal and expect any sort of increase in safety …
1. Almost everyone cycles. So all drivers are themselves cyclists. So they treat other cyclists with consideration.
2. The road/cycle infrastructure is set up to separate cars and bikes wherever possible. And where they share routes, cars are often explicitly second class users ("auto te gast" - cars, you're guests).
3. In any collision between a car and a bike, the driver will almost always be the one found at fault.
They do use "change on approach" lights outside of the cities way more, but in cities it's usually only for trams and buses.
I've fallen many times and not once I've hit my head. They are probably useful in high speed impacts, but then you are fucked anyways.
Gloves are much more useful on a daily basis. Saved my hand many times.
I've also seen a friend have a high-speed impact: he was airlifted to hospital, survived and has mostly recovered. Looking at the state of his helmet I have no doubt that he would have died at the scene without it.
Most biking in the US is biking shared with cars. You probably won't have a bike lane. Most likely, you aren't commuting or going to the grocery store - the grocery store might take 15 minutes of driving but 30 minutes of biking - if you can even go the most direct route legally. Longer biking sessions generally means more risk. I'll take the helmet in places that I must defend myself against automobiles on an unsafe path.
Also look at those 'old' basic bikes they use there, you don't need more on those flatlands and everybody is fine with 20-25kmh. Add tech bros or generally young folks with fast ebikes and escooters going 50kmh and things change.
That's why we point to them. The infrastructure didn't exist in Holland either, until they choose to build it.
Even Amsterdam has streets which have 0 room, but generally city center is blocked/too expensive to most car traffic to even enter so they manage.
If it would be a easy problem to solve, it would be done or at least almost done at this point. And something tells me it requires certain type of population where respect to others is way above average, that's not granted.
Many Dutch cities don't either, that's why they disallow cars entirely. Really only Rotterdam has spacious roads thanks to the bombings. Ann I understanding you correctly?
> And something tells me it requires certain type of population where respect to others is way above average, that's not granted.
I'm not sure where you are the casuality here. In my experience it's the more human centred infrastructure design that encourages a higher level of social engagement and respect for others.
But regardless I would find it tragic to condem certain cultures as being inherently incapable of these things.
> If it would be a easy problem to solve, it would be done or at least almost done at this point.
It wasn't begun that long ago in the Netherlands. The vast majority of infrastructure has been built since the turn of the century. It takes a while for other places to really realise that their current models aren't working, and even longer for them to really learn the lessons of the Dutch.
But if you look at cities like London, Leipzig, Barcelona, Paris or further afield to Montreal for example then many cities are actually beginning to successfully integrate Dutch design practices.
Amsterdam’s answer to faster vehicles is to move them to the main road with other faster traffic. Although it is now moving to slow down nearly all traffic inside the city to a 30km/h limit, which will improve cyclist safety a lot.
If you have to ride alongside cars, make sure you practice defensive riding.
https://www.eta.co.uk/2011/04/01/safest-bicycle-helmet-has-b...
In the UK.
https://drianwalker.com/overtaking/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/strange-but-true-...
(I guess it doesn’t work if you don’t have public healthcare)
People who don't use helmets don't do it because they are too expensive. They do it because it's not convenient to carry, because it's not cool, because it messes your hair, because you need somewhere to store it. (Not) Free helmets solve zero of these problems, it's just a bad idea.
People who don't use helmets for whatever reason would be more inclined to do so if they could just go pick one up, and didn't have to pay for them in a store. Even if those reasons are not that they are expensive. It's a great idea.
All the cities maintaining a bunch of locations full of helmets for free pickup would just create more waste. I bet people would pick them up and just discard them when it wouldn't be convenient to use them. And nobody wants to pickup and wear a discarded helmet that is dirty and was in the elements so there would be huge waste. You can have a similar effect without any waste by just having a class that teaches children to ride bycicles at school and tells them the benefits of helmets and keeps helmets there for that one class. This memory would be with you for life, and you'd make your own decision.
If helmets were cost prohibitive I'd be with you, I believe in using tax money for that kind of stuff, but price is not the reason people don't use helmets.
1. Redesign a 2-lane (each direction) highway into a 4-lane highway at the cost of several hundred million tax dollars, over the course of a few years.
2. Leave the highway smaller. Re-zone a city to allow small shops within residential neighborhoods, and up-zone all residential land to allow up to 4-story townhomes and condos. Spend tens of millions of tax dollars building a robust cycling highway, and make it safe for people to accomplish basic errands within a close proximity to their home.
For #2, spending of tax dollars is less and people are healthier. You still have roads, but people need to drive on them much less often.
So when the next city proposes an $840M highway revamp [1], consider how you could spend 10% of that funding to increase mobility around the city for residents ($84M could build a lot of safe separated bike highways). While at the same time allowing private development to make natural improvements to neighborhoods by opening new corner stores and shops along bike routes
People do understand that with government programs, "free" means taxpayer funded. As in, almost everyone understands that. The comment isn't needed. Those comments are the reason I put things like "fare free public transport" - not because it is more realistic, but because arguing with these comments is exhausting.
Society is full of things other people helped pay for - and you most definitely use them. Your health insurance company pools money together to cover everyone's ills, for example. You don't pay individually for your infrastructure use - other people help you pay so that you can get electricity. And so on. You can't have modern society without this.
its a nice idea, but i think adults should pay for their own helmets
however, children... sure. give them one.
It was a transformative experience to go from 40 VO2max to 57 (as reported by Apple Watch, and losing 30lbs on the way) over the past 12 months. The best part about it is that I didn't even have to give up anything - the extra energy I gained from 90-120 minutes of aerobics per day also had the effect of making everything else more efficient.
Generally, my runs are between 5-10K and rides are 30km/20mi ish. More days than not I'll do both, but on other days I only get one done due to time issues. Weekends are usually for longer rides. I average around 200km/130mi on the bike and 40-50km of running per week. I've had to build up to this level gradually so it started from a much lower volume but I've been able to keep it pretty consistent for this year.
It's gotten to a point where if I don't do any exercise I would feel really bad physiologically so it drives me to go out everyday. But I essentially choose what to do at the hour and since most of the training is zone 2/endurance it doesn't matter too much.
This post is a little braggy but it's also one of the best things I've did and I'm genuinely proud of it. The result and the process wildly exceeded my expectation at the time when I started last summer and it made me happier, more efficient, and even gave me time to reflect (since there's not much else you can do while going on a long ride/run) mentally.
If anyone is thinking about it - give it a try! The starting months are the hardest, but once it gets going a positive feedback loop takes over. I've been able to convince some people in my life to start exercising when they saw me change so substantially in a single year.
The other thing is the denominator of vo2 is weight. So losing weight without working out at all will increase vo2
Well done to OP. Keep it up.
Weight loss doesn't automatically mean "healthier."
Using vo2 as a metric of "health" would not be correct if weight loss is the sole attribution of vo2 gain.
One can lose weight without doing a minute of exercise and vo2 would increase.
If one is interested in getting healthier, I think it's well worth the time to learn about how the metrics work.
My watch says my VO2max is 36.8 which would put me very strongly in the long term negative health effects bucket and well below average. Meanwhile Garmin claims it's 51 which would put me in the top 15% of my age group. It can't be both. They're just made up estimations, and following them blindly could be dangerous. What if someone's is going up even though they're not actually doing a healthy amount of exercise? Or someone's is going down or maintaining even though they are, causing them to fall into negative thought or behavioral patterns? Better to stick with some other data points
But that is a huge gap, I think in general running creates more realistic VO2max data than cycling since there are too many factors at play (e.g. if you're in a group or not or using the drop vs. not).
Even thought the VO2max is not accurate (especially not compared to actually lab data) it is a nice graph with a tendency which REALLY helps.
High differences might come from different estimation techniques and thus this value is not comparable among different brands but it seems to be for your own value and progress.
During a lazier time it depleted a bit, now its going up again.
Most other graphs don't show it that nice. E.g. your avg hearth rate will not make huge changes (and drop which, even if its good, doesn't feel that good).
Edit: I actually did a Lab test (not VO2max) but an exercise ecg with lactate measurements. I couldn't choose between running and cycling. The problem is: if you choose the bike they can measure the values while you continue riding. If you choose running you have to stop now and then while they take a blood sample. Even there it isn't 100% accurate and might yield different results based on the used method.
It could have been named Vo5max and for me it'd have worked. In the real world, this number actually tracks pretty linearly with how much faster I'm able to climb a hill on a bike.
That's because both of those things are directly related to weight.
(VO2 max is usually given in a weight-normalized unit. So losing weight will make it go up as long as you at least maintain your fitness).
I find most people who devote themselves like this enjoy the process. If they enjoy it, it objectively improves their body, and they have the time - why not?
Happiest and most productive Ive been was when I was skating, riding a bike, dancing etc for hours every day.
> Why is two hours ridiculous?
Because it isn't sustainable, except for 0.1% of people.80% or more of it is spent at Zone 2/Endurance where I try to keep my heart rate below 145.
First:
> Fortunately, this seems relatively simple to change
Second: > the extra energy I gained from 90-120 minutes of aerobics per day
Are you joking? You are asking average people to commit to 90-120 of c-v exercise per day? So, 7 days per week? This stuff is nonsense. Most people would quit after a week. I guess 99% of people could not sustain this for more than 3 months.The hard part is getting started. Once you start it's self-perpetuating.
Zone 2 endurance aerobic exercise are in some way similar to an addiction but you'll need a certain volume to trigger it.
It is a little braggy but I also consider this one of the best things I've did in my whole life - and I myself didn't remotely dreamed of this result when I started last year.
With 30km bike commute you can scroll the web as much as before.
I have been engaging in powerlifting/weightlifting for over a decade. In my initial years, I was in the "just do weights, don't need cardio" camp. However, around 2018, I started doing cardio mostly to cut body weight as I wanted to hit my personal bests on squats, deadlifts, and bench at a lower body weight.
I personally experienced that my weights moved much better, especially when I was doing more volume work (higher reps) with cardio than without cardio. Cardio seemed to improve my working capacity and I felt more efficient at doing more reps.
So, I would recommend cardio even when one is trying to bulk up in weight and trying to get strong. Doesn't have to be crazy cardio either - just 10 - 15 minutes of zone 2 cardio 4 days a week might be good enough. You can also do types of cardio which work certain muscles - like stair master can be made to specifically target the quads and calves. Or rowing can be good for building the lats. Swimming is good too.
Personally, I either do intervals on the stair master or intervals on an echo bike (fan bike).
So I suppose the message needs to be: Both are important.
I found that cardio tended to severely limit my lifting gains if I did anything more than 30 minutes in a week. I stopped entirely and found my lift increased more rapidly.
But that's just me. Just like all the other variables you have - number of sets, number of repetitions, frequency of workouts, rest periods, it's good to try a few options and see which one your body responds to the best.
If you go to a fitness center, some have machines set up for this. Mine used to call it circuit training. At home, if you're using free weights, have enough that you don't waste time changing plates.
It feels a bit like the US approach to pain management – instead of massages or physical therapy, some opioid pill is cheaper to prescribe.
I can't fix my social anxiety through workout. But I sure can feel better about myself when doing it and then approach those anxieties with more confidence, but the anxieties are still there.
> my social anxiety
I am considering trying some beta blockers. Did you try them? They seem like an interesting experiement.Same way an opioid pill is still prescribed in cases of cancer or severe pain. Just that there are probably better, milder alternatives that don't have as many side effects that could fit a lot of these people with milder problems.
So yeah, my takeaway is we should embrace workout, or maybe not necesserily straight workout, but just simple movement/exercise, more than meds. Especially here in germany I notice a very bad/prejudice mindset about doctors. I myself had very good experience. Either just because of pure luck or because I went to them, because I geniuenely believe that they are professionals who can help me. And that's what they (most of the time, not always) did.
For most folks, that connection doesn't exist. Hell, I work out 3x a week and even I don't notice the obvious side-effects even though I'm certain they exist.
When we're dealing with ordinary people living their daily lives, the idea that something so "non-mental" - in the most literal sense "physical" can have an effect on the mental, is a really tough thing to swallow, understand and hell, even percept when things are going well?
Sorry. But I'm an avid gym-goer and even I have to remind myself of the positive it's doing. We're not all the same.
Maybe you're one of the people that for whatever reason exercise does nothing to - though I highly doubt it. I'm not sure what training you do exactly but to reap most of the benefits the workout should include moderate cardio work. I don't think going to lift weights for a 40-60 minutes with plenty of rest between sets will cut it. Running for 45+ minutes is what most people should aim for, of course beginners will do less.
Anyway I agree with you - for most folks the connection doesn't exist, perhaps its time this changed.
I didn't exercise basically at all for well over decade. But I felt fine, wasn't overweight or gaining weight or anything like that.
But I decided that I should probably exercise, so have been for awhile now. Fortunately I have what appears to be a very high amount of self control so I'm able to just force myself to go exercise even though I hate every second of it and it just feels like a waste of time.
I haven't noticed any changes to anything that I can think of since going from no exercise to 3-4 days a week of about 1 hour sessions of zone 2+ exercise.
I just keep waiting for this magical benefit that some people talk about, but I get nothing.
I'm only doing it because if I don't, supposedly "bad things" will happen to my body in the future.
Also - don't take it the wrong way but it's going to be very hard for you to notice anything positive about the whole thing if you're convinced you hate every minute of it. I'm not sure how you can get out of this mindset but I think it's important that you do. Or try different kinds of exercise that you don't hate.
I was defining zone 2 mainly by how it feels. Not too hard and where I can breathe fairly normally and easily have a conversation. But also by the heartrate being in the 65-75% range, so for age 36 I was keeping it around 125-130. My resting heart rate is 52 but not sure if that matters. It's always been that even when I was more than a decade of sedentary.
Another reason I was doing all zone 2 is because I thought that I had some sort of aerobic deficiency syndrome thing from being sedentary for so long. Basically my heart rate would shoot up into zone 3 with pretty minimal exercise, and I read that the only way to fix this was to do lots and lots of long zone 2 exercise for months.
I'm sure if I did more fun things it would be easier to be enthusiastic about it, but I am not even sure what active activity I would like. Sure I like hiking, but that's something I like to do on a trip somewhere exotic like a state or national park, not something I can easily do regularly locally.
My energy levels honestly feel somewhat more depleted when I am working out. Like I just want to take a nap after a workout and I feel like nodding off. Not like instantly, but maybe like an hour after or so.
I just haven't been able to understand or feel the connection people find with exercise. Like I said, I never felt any issue or lacking in my energy levels or mood, or sleep or focus when I was more or less completely sedentary, and I always watched what I ate so I was healthy in that regard (perfect scores on biometric blood tests), normal weight, etc.
So exercise just feels like a time waster, just an uncomfortable time sweating etc and overall possibly a little more tired and drained because of it.
My only motivation for keeping doing it is the prospect that it will help prevent some sort of future complications and health issues, and I guess that's good enough for me to convince myself to keep going.
Hating it is maybe too strong of a word, but I definitely don't look forward to it in any way and I just want to get it over with for the day so I can move onto something that I actually enjoy. It just feels like a chore. Something that we need to do to live a good life, so we do it.
Anyway good luck! I hope you'll take away from this that its OK to change /mix things up and see what works for you.
Exercise does nothing for severe depression.
It doesn’t make the bad thoughts go away. It doesn’t turn off the bad feelings. I’d still be diagnosed with severe depression if I went in with a fresh slate. What it does is give me the energy to endure it, though. The physiological symptoms subside quite a bit, and it makes a meaningful difference.
It also helps more than medication since I seem to be a non-responder. It’s a big help in my life.
I've had friends able to start exercising a few months in their treatments, when the medication gave them more mental leeway. Before that they were fighting to wake up and properly eat, and do anything really.
I started jogging a month or so ago and have definitely seen an improvement in my mental health.
It’s tough because I’ve known this for 15 years or so, but when I’m in a hole it somehow seems like it’ll only make things worse. I understand why someone who hasn’t had the experience of feeling better from exercise would see the entire premise as unlikely or absurd.
(Would be great if there were actually prescribed work-compatible supervised exercise sessions on offer, but AFAIK that's not a thing offered anywhere by any health service)
Neither is therapy or taking chemicals. Yet we whole heartedly push it on people. Is it easy to go to a complete stranger and start talking about your most intimate childhood issues? Sometimes for years on? That is if you're lucky enough to find a therapist you actually click with and who knows what he/she is doing which is far from guaranteed (and that is if you can even afford the whole thing). I don't think it is easy or rewarding at all, to me running sounds easier. But as a society we just became conditioned to operate in our current bizarre ways - it doesn't mean its easy or sensible it just is.
> Just saying "you should do more exercise" is completely useless
Since the vast majority don't see exercise as a viable mental health therapy (as far as I know) it is indeed a bit useless to say it. If it was taken more seriously by the mental health community and society in general - then people would take it more seriously. By taking it seriously I mean a whole societal change. I see no reason why exercise shouldn't be subsidized just like other therapies sometimes are. Yes you will get a subsidy for a personal trainer who will work with you because you need it for your mental health - why isn't this happening at all?
This is the same problem with CPAP machines - they nominally have a huge efficacy rate, and a rock-bottom rate of people sticking to them, because for a lot of people, they're deeply invasive and uncomfortable, and insurance (in the US) in many cases has stopped paying for them if their obsessive babysitting doesn't swear you've used it 95% of the time, so people just say "hell with it" and stop stressing about, say, not being able to take a hike for a few days of camping because their insurance will stop paying for it.
It all goes back to the fundamental premise of "if your solution requires changing people, you will not succeed."
Also how is this related to depression, you said “this is the same problem” after you mentioned depression.
CPAP machines are often prescribed for people who are not necessarily at acute risk of death so much as having no consistent high quality sleep, which has a lot of complicated possible knock-on effects. Unfortunately, since it takes a long time sometimes to notice positive effects, while they're uncomfortable to use from the start (among other reasons), it becomes difficult to convince people to keep using them for unseen benefits. (To my understanding, yes, insurance will just stop paying for it if you don't hit some threshold of usage. I've not had insurance that did that, but I have personally known multiple people who had to avoid certain activities because they would have been away from electricity for too long.)
Similarly, if you suggest exercise, an activity that requires a significant investment of mental effort for many people to engage in absent habit, as a sole treatment for a condition where people sometimes cannot manage to invest enough effort to eat, an activity which many people enjoy doing, it will not be constructive.
(I'm not arguing against either as part of a larger treatment plan, but if you don't consider the reasons that people might not have done them beyond "I didn't know it was an option", then you will often end up giving advice that is technically correct but not usefully actionable.)
In the example you cited, that's 36 hours (!) of runnning in a week: meaning I'd have to run 6 hours a day and only take Sunday off each week before I was officially running too much. And I've noticed I can't run more than 4 days a week anyway, so even that's off limits. 6 hours a day, 6 days a week, even under optimal conditions, wouldn't be something I'd approach even if I was retired.
So practically speaking, "run as much as you can before your body aches stops you" seems like a good rule of thumb.
There are some studies which suggest that the artery buildup from frequent running is not bad, but these don't take cancer or other factors into account - in contrast all-cause mortality is one of the most comprehensive statistics available. The drawback is that although it gives you a number, that number might be affected by unknown variables.
Isn’t OP saying explicitly that 2200 MET minutes per week is simply 3 hours of running per week at 8mph? Where does your 36 hours come from?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_equivalent_of_task
I'd disagree slightly with your characterization of the author's findings on over-exercising; quoting from the discussion section:
"Our findings do not provide evidence for increased mortality risk with physical activity amounts as high as seven times above the current recommended target range. All cause, CVD and CHD mortality risks were lower at physical activity levels up to approximately 5–7 times the recommended level but the additional reduction in risk of mortality with engagement in activity at levels beyond the recommendations was modest and with increasing uncertainty, as reflected by the wide confidence intervals. Thus based on all of the available studies, we did not identify a higher mortality risk at any level of physical activity above the recommended level, although the lowest point estimate for all cause mortality was approximately 2000 MET min. Our analyses suggest that 10–12 hours of weekly vigorous physical activity cannot be considered harmful to longevity."
My reading is that the authors did not draw any conclusions about increased risks at higher MET levels due to the broad confidence intervals caused by the cancer risk data.
Using confidence intervals in this case is a bit misleading though. What would be most useful IMO would be the prediction interval for the lowest point estimate, as that could be used to determine if individual activity amounts are appropriate.
> 2200 MET-minutes/week is about 3 hours of 8mph running per week
Wow, that is a lot of exercise for the average person. That would be 30 mins per day, six days a week. Again, I don't think 99% of people can sustain this for a more than a few months.That's only 24 miles per week of running.
Most people could probably get to that level of fitness within a year.
For example, suppose the main impact of exercise on cancer risk were simply the correlation with time spent outdoors in the sun. Then you would expect to see a chart like this. But a conclusion like 'limit running to 3 hours/week, while walking can be up to 12 hours/week' would be totally wrong.
I think the GP's comment is just easy to misread.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1748-1716.1976...
You won't be a 55 Vo2 runner if you're a 55 Vo2 Cyclist, but cardiovascular fitness does cross between those activities to an extent
This is incorrect - the primary factor is heart and lung function. Yes, muscle training can play a factor, but is relatively minor compared to that.
https://old.reddit.com/r/AppleWatch/comments/m5q7yx/cardio_f...
https://old.reddit.com/r/AppleWatch/comments/yte3zd/the_vo2_...
Could it be that it’s just pretty difficult to improve VO2Max in general? Some people’s hearts have to beat harder or they breathe in less than fitter people?
There are major differences between individuals in terms of training response and achievable upper limit.
[0] https://support.apple.com/en-us/108790#:~:text=Apple%20Watch....
It requires a ten minute run on level ground at a certain heart rate to "calibrate" but tries to estimate it from other exercise too.
It leads to the number fluctuating quite a bit between runs and other exercises.
I'd argue that how you feel during a run or hard cardio training is a better metric. You can fairly easily judge progress week to week, completely subjectively.
I suspect it might use the age and gender predicted max heart rate in the calculations instead of the values set by the user in the workout settings. My MHR has been roughly 25 beats above the average throughout my adult life. As far as I know, above average MHR is not an indicator of poor cardio fitness in it self (even though being fit affects heart rate response).
The discussion part of this paper lists some causes for incorrect VO2MAX prediction, and has a line that may support my thesis https://www.apple.com/healthcare/docs/site/Using_Apple_Watch...
> In addition to chronotropic incompetence, other medical conditions can also decrease the accuracy of VO2 max estimates on Apple Watch ... medical conditions that severely limit exercise tolerance, preventing patients from reaching heart rates close to their predicted maximum heart rate
The description in the Health App under Cardio Fitness (the one that shows VO2 Max) says that it measure it only for outdoor walks, hikes and runs. If you don’t do these outdoor activities, it won’t measure or record VO2 Max. I’ve seen this reflected in my measurements. I do HIIT and cardio workouts at home, and it certainly doesn’t measure or record VO2 Max.
I track my actual VO2Max measurements in Apple Health via a shortcut, and I don't need a daily made-up number messing up my data.
I realise it’s also another estimate but based on my cycling exercises Garmin is estimating my VO2 max at 55 and it does show a progression in my values.
So when you get good data for your VO2Max (or anything else, really), you can easily save it and look at it on the Apple Health graphs.
The only way to get the Watch to stop messing it up with its daily hallucinated number is to turn off all fitness tracking (in the Privacy settings of all places).
But then half the reason for having the watch goes away.
For most casual people it's just a single data point that seems all encompassing so they go:
number goes up = good.
Most professional athletes don't really care about vo2 max all that much.
The Copenhagen City Heart Study, published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology in 2018 found that light jogging for 20 minutes a day, 3x a week reduces all-cause mortality by 78%.
That's insane.
But yes, people don't realize that even just walking at a moderate pace for 20 min 3 times a week provides huge benefits if you are otherwise completely sedentary.
Conclusion
Our findings showed that high CRF is strongly associated with lower risk of premature mortality, incident chronic conditions (ie, hypertension, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, dementia and depression), and poor prognosis in those with existing chronic conditions. The consistency of the evidence across a variety of health outcomes demonstrates the importance of CRF and the need to incorporate this measure in routine clinical and public health practice. Future studies should focus on outcomes with limited evidence and where the certainty of the evidence was rated as very low by improving study quality.
BTW, I asked the doctor how much exercise is enough. Her response: If you smell the same when you're done exercising as when you started, it's not enough. I found that both humorous and helpful.
Disclaimer: I'm not a doctor or expert. If a loved-one is experiencing memory loss or difficulty thinking, see a doctor.
Elsewhere in this topic I mentioned exercise helps me with depression. I’ve speculated that it’s due to simply making my brain work better. Depression often feels like your brain isn’t working. Sometimes it extends to your body. There’s more to it, but what exercise does to me feels a bit like turning the lights up a bit and taking some weights off (mentally and physically).
Note that these are minimums and that there's really no ceiling on getting benefits in the literature so long as you increase volume and intensity in a sustainable way and are eating and sleeping enough to sufficiently recover.
Start slow, 5 minutes, breathe, go slow, and enjoy the beautiful weather here this time of year.
'Arms bending and stretching!' she rapped out. 'Take your time by me. One, two, three, four! One, two, three, four! Come on, comrades, put a bit of life into it! One, two, three, four! One, two, three, four! ...'"
> For every 1-MET (3.5 mL/kg/min) higher level of CRF, we identified substantial reductions in the risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. We also identified significant reductions in the risk of incident hypertension, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation and type 2 diabetes per higher MET.
> For most, a 1-MET higher level of CRF is attainable through a regular aerobic exercise programme. For example, in a large population-based observational study of over 90 000 participants, nearly 30% were able to increase their CRF by 1-MET (median follow-up was 6.3 years) without intervention.
I focus on "maxing out" sets of 500m since it correlates well to basketball cardio, and I have infinite cardio even in my mid 30's.
They go to their doctors to know when to start medical interventions.
Even simple waist-to-hip ratio assessement would be a big win for identifying lifestyle concerns, but neither that nor the far more involved VO2Max and DEXA rests are going to become standard unless they becoming a gaiting condition for some celebrated drug or procedure.
And that's as much because of the patient's perspective of what they want from doctors as it is because of the doctors or broader establishment.
"I tell my patients they will need to lose weight, but whatever they do they must not lose it too fast. They always follow that advice just fine"
Settling for subpar "could be good enough" heuristics instead of doing actual measurements is partly why people are less receptive.
Basically it'd just be telling them they're fat, and not what's their actual individual risk, and it would also make tracking progress overly difficult: what if after a year of exercice their VO2Max greatly improves while waist to hip only slightly changed ?
Overweight people already have distrust of doctors just telling them to first lose weight and dismiss their specific requests for help, additional advice vaguely based on statistics would probably not help.
People don't want to hear it because they are out of shape.
One should stick to the facts however.
Waist-to-hip is a good predictor for generic subjects who otherwise never cared about improving their health. If the goal is to actually improve health, that assumption stops being true and you can't rely on generic heuristics anymore.
Frankly, the vast majority of people don't need fancy tests. The thing is, the healthcare system is not about optimizing health or performance. It's mostly about fixing problems and heading off the most common ones in the easiest ways. If the goal was to optimize, it would be relatively easy for a trained individual to examine most people and tell them to lose weight and exercise more. Hell, you could blindfold the person and their advice would still be right like 80% of the time.
At the very least, good medical care provides information. What the individual does with it is up to them.
Yes, medical care should provide information. There are lower tech and cheaper ways to provide actionable information. But like you said, it's up to the individual. Either the will is there or it isn't. If someone knows they would benefit from the visual representation of a scan, they can ask for one. Technically DEXA carries some risk with x-ray exposure if done on a recurring basis.
Most people have these at home and fail to take meaningful action based on the results.
"Excuse me sir, I have you VO2Max and DEXA scan results. It shows your cardiovascular fitness and body fat is problematic. But we already knew that since your BMI is 35 and you told me you don't exercise at all".
But man, in all other physical aspects I feel it has not done well to my body. Neck cranks, twisted spine, sore throat from getting choked, occasional black eye.
So I'm kind of torn between the improvement to my cardio and mental health and on the other side every other physical aspect
My favorite exercise in this regard is Swimming and Kettlebell training.
Disclaimer: This is not an endorsement for Swinning and Kettlebell training.
Go to people who know what they're talking about like the Barbell Medicine podcast for evidence-based fitness recommendations.
For the first 2 months, cardio was not part of it. Really focusing on diet, reintroducing myself to portions of Whole Foods to hit macro goals. Really focusing on vegetables and protein, large quantities of low calorie foods that digest relatively slowly to keep me satiated for long periods. They're also quick to digest.
I was always active, even at 330lbs I would mountain bike (ascending and downhill) comfortable on black diamonds, same with snowboarding. This continued, but I didn't try to explicitly do and track cardio.
After I lost 35lbs, I added CrossFit once a week. Then 2 times a week. Then 3 times a week. I noticed that olympic lifts and squats would cause extreme systemic fatigue, and would leave me dizzy and out of breath. After a couple months,
I stopped doing CrossFit due to an injury caused that that effect, and started isolated training for muscle hypertrophy utilizing machines for 5+ days a week, but missed the cardio that CrossFit gave.
I was about 260lbs at this point, and started with incline walking at about 3mph at max incline for 40 minutes. Then I started to begin my cardio with a 6mph run until I was out of breath and a high heart rate, and then began the incline walking.
After a week or so, I began running the a mile at the fastest speed I could, then switching to incline walking until my heart rate dropped, and alternated running and incline walking for 40 minutes.
Then, in November, I ran my first 5k in 34 minutes. I was hooked. I walked a couple minutes of it in the middle, but was pround myself. Today, I can run a 5k in 25 minutes if I push myself.
Today, I ran 5 miles without stopping with several hundred feet of elevation gain.
Cardio health is life changing. I used to be tired walking up large sets of stairs, and it was embarrassing to not be able to hold a conversation for long while walking up stairs.
It's also a myth, perpetuated by highly trained athletes that you cannot gain muscle and do cardio, or that you cannot do these things while in a caloric deficit.
I have lost nearly 1% of my body weight per week as a vegetarian while gaining significant muscle mass (today, I am about 15-17% body fat at 6'1 and 208lbs).
The biggest thing I can say is it's never too late to start, and it's important to be consistent and find what works for you. At 32 years old, I have added years to my life, and feel and look better than I ever have.
Also, cardio gives an amazing dopamine rush that beyond addicting. Highly recommend it. But don't forget the resistance training.
Anyone can do it. One day at a time.
As someone in tech, the process of rebuilding yourself is addicting once you start to see progress on every front.
VO2Max Increasing. Resting Heart Rate Dropping. Waist Shrinking. Chest, Arms, Legs Growing. Muscle definition increasing. Lift PRs increasing. And you look better in clothing.
> It's also a myth, perpetuated by highly trained athletes that you cannot gain muscle and do cardio, or that you cannot do these things while in a caloric deficit.
I think it's more accurate to describe this in terms of definitions: "gains muscle while in caloric deficit" is possible for the untrained/beginners.
> For the first 2 months, cardio was not part of it.
It's really easy for bad diet decisions to counteract the effects of even a significant amount of cardio; and it's easy to fatigue the body by trying to do too much cardio.
For aiming for calorie deficit, I think it makes sense "do what's least awful out of: reduce calories in food, or add cardio".
> Cardio health is life changing.
I noticed my chess.com rating improved just from improving cardiovascular health.
> started isolated training for muscle hypertrophy utilizing machines for 5+ days a week
My impression as a beginner was that free weights were scary and that there were many exercises you'd have to choose from. (Whereas machines seemed idiot proof). In practice, "squat, deadlift, benchpress" would be a good start. (Or a starting point to read about, anyway).
https://exrx.net/ is an outstanding website that I wish I'd come across sooner.
Anything is better than nothing, and many of the benefits are going to persist in some form for quite some time. I did lose some strength, but I'm still on the order of 1.5-2x as strong as I was before I did any work at all. Never mind the confidence strength training gives you when it comes to just doing basic stuff and knowing you aren't going to hurt yourself.
I think it's valuable to turn things into regular habits, but it's also worth noting for those who have this idea that it's a waste (because they'd rather be doing something else, and they don't want to work out for the rest of their life) - 6 months of basic (but hard, proper) workouts will pay dividends for probably forever.
There are historically lots of things that "seemed obvious" but couldn't hold up under research, which is why we do research. It confirms what you think or maybe it forces you to question what you think. Either way, it is good.
Case and point, there is a rising opinion lately which Trump has promoted that your heart only beats a set, finite number, of beats in a lifetime. Therefore, according to this opposing hypothesis, it makes sense to not perform intense cardiovascular activity throughout your life, because it accelerates your heart hitting that finite limit that it is capable of. This opinion has gained traction in recent years and to some people it "seems obvious" that a faster heartrate might wear it out more quickly, leading to premature death. So to those people, research like this defeats their assumptions and helps them feel more confident about performing exercise because it is research-backed that Cardiovascular Fitness prolongs life.
That's why research is important. Obvious shouldn't stand for anything.
The study itself can’t address the direction of causality because it is observational.
e.g.
my HR is 50 thanks to running an hour a day, my HR during those runs are between 120 to 150, that gives 50x60x23+150x60 == 78000 beats a day
a non runner might've a HR of 60 (being very generous, most folks are well above 70), that gives 60x60x24 == 86400 beats
Again, the limited heartbeats theory sounds like an oversimplification. But the point of rigorous training (cardio and strength) is that your body adapts to the taxing efforts during training and doesn't need to work nearly as hard for your day to day.
Sources? The claim I most recently heard is that 60-80 bpm is within normal range (which itself surprised me, because I've usually been told a target of 60 bpm resting heartrate, leaving aside the 40 bpm achievable by some athletes).
As someone else mentioned, a classic poor man's test of VO2 max is simply to time trial a set amount, such as seeing how far you can run in 10 minutes, and use a calculator. So the same thing with extra steps.
If it's meaningfully improving from year to year, you're improving all the things you care about.
(The best way to improve that is to slowly increase your volume of cardiovascular training over time, with at least 80% being zone 2 work.)
Modern wearables can estimate VO2max but they require some sort of workout data, potentially excluding the majority of the population (=sedentary people). Our recent research at the University of Cambridge developed and validated one of the first models for non-workout VO2max estimation. Paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41746-022-00719-1
TLDR: we can now estimate cardio-fitness just by tracking your everyday movement/heart rate
Without care you might conclude, for example, that rock climbing prevents becoming a quadriplegic since there aren't any quadriplegic rock climbers... when in fact to the extent that they're related at all rock climbing sometimes causes it.
That’s all the watches are doing anyway. Even if you do buy a watch, keep in mind you need to run regular max effort runs to get an accurate value.
“Losers who will run till they die”
“Bunch of amateurs”
That level of inflammatory discourse ain’t welcome here.
Which is better for establishing cardio fitness? Short and hard vs longer and moderate?
When in my fourties I looked in the mirror one day and thought "my god man you have piled on a few pounds lately".
I immediately went out and joined a gym for a bit of indoor running
So, I went weekly for an hour or two. I thoroughly enjoyed it.
My I'm not sure!
I was happily running along on my treadmill one day, hreart rate at a constant 125bpm, whe suddenly there was an almighty commotion on the treadmill next to me.
The guy running next to me had collapsed.
He was 52 years old. I knew this because we had had a few chats.
He suffered a heart attack in the gym and died on the treadmill.
Poor guy. Poor family.
I gave up going to the gym after that.
It’s well known that exercise is beneficial for overall health. Sure, some people die doing it just like some people die doing literally anything else.
You have no idea what his pre-existing medical conditions were.
We doubled our lifespan from 32 to 75 from 1900 to now. In a 100 years, we changed the game.
Once we pass 50, there is a lot of complex machinery at play including genetics, past history, diet, drinking, smoking e.t.c. to cause death.