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The 2020 referendum had a very obvious split where one side of the island voted to remain and the rest voted for independence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Caledonian_independen...

Subsidies and the move to more local governance probably mostly benefit the area around the capital Nouméa, which is of course on the side that voted to remain.

I wonder how palatable a compromise would be where only part of the island becomes independent.

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I think these are ethnic lines, with the "white" population mostly in the South.

Everyone on the islands benefit from the full French benefit and welfare system and on top of that there are plenty of subsidies, which are in part targeted at the indigenous population, which is actually benefits a lot from the mining industry (a lot in the North where there are the majority).

Sometimes people just want to be independent regardless of all the autonomy, money and opportunities they are offered. It's not just about practical matters, it's about "being ourselves".

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