It might be confirmation bias, but I do think it's becoming more and more clear that OpenAI is struggling with improving the models beyond the GPT-4 level.
1) you get an amazing demo that blows everybody's nips off after working in obscurity for many years.
2) everyone thinks that, because they just learned about the current state of the art it must have just been invented, and draws a mental line to AGI with a slope based on assumed rather than actual rate of progress
3) the grifters at the top capitalize on the hype to kite a whole bunch of cheques.
4) 18-24 months of everyone paying attention to every little micro advancement makes people realize that progress is actually as slow as it's ever been
5) welcome to the next AI winter.
I wonder if the level of investment was near comparable ever to what microsoft and google and fb etc are spending now on training foundation models.
I feel like the money guys really believe it this time, given the money we're seeing still being poured in, and it's not slowing down yet (please correct me if I'm wrong). but also I am biased as I love the idea of agi and desperately want this time to be different