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Comment by horsehead | Hacker News Reader

I seriously think Facebook is going to collapse soon. It's so overhyped it's not even funny -- just look to their stocks to see a prime example. So many people are just itching to get away from it now that it can't last long. We'll see, of course. But it is soon to be a Myspace, et al.

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They have cash (quite a bit, post-IPO) and revenue. Companies with cash and revenue don't collapse, even if their stock is overvalued. Myspace didn't "collapse" either, though ultimately it lost in the market to a better competitor.

It's possible Facebook will ultimately lose too, but it won't be because of their stock value or their being "overhyped". Hell, statistically it's much more likely that they'll be beaten by a much, much smaller company (though I guess G+ might do it too).

The IPO was overvalued in my opinion, but I don't think the stock price is a great indicator of the future of the company. That said, I think a decline is possible, but will it happen soon? I don't know. Maybe the backlash will come from kids whose parents are essentially building profiles for them.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is ... short them ... let us know how it works out :)

$16bn says they wont be collapsing anytime soon. . . .

Just to be clear, I don't think they're going to go under as a company (edit: financially). By "collapse," I mean they're going to lose their relevance. The overvaluing of their IPO (and I feel their stock is still overvalued) is just one sign among many that I feel show it's not worth all the hype surrounding it. The problem is, FB doesn't know how to adapt. It's only one in a long line of social network, and it won't be the last. Or best.

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