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Comment by PaulKeeble | Hacker News Reader

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype.

What I fear is that Nvidia sees no value in its basic graphics cards any more or wants a lot more for them because they could sell that wafer space to businesses for more $. Its been getting crazy expensive for decent GPUs for a while for gaming and I can't see the next generation doing anything but being much higher due to the AI boom.

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AI is still fueled by hope.

The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise.

When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions and Nvidia is happy to sit in the background selling billions of dollars in compute.

In many cases there's no obvious way to collect additional revenue for AI features either. For example, Google now has an AI box in their search but will this translate to more ad revenue?

Ai is more of a deflationary force. It will make things cheaper and those features will be table stakes.

Yes, and the cognitive dissonance induced by comparing the actual applications of it to what the evangelists and marketeers say about it is extraordinary. The rhetorical gap widens apace.

Right now I’d say it’s 5% functionality and 95% marketing hype for companies that want investors to believe they are innovative. For the most part these companies are just incorporating chat bots and inaccurate abstraction layers into their platforms and calling it the greatest transformation in history. What feels off to me is that most of these people don’t have great track record with these types of predictions and are historically trend followers.

> This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task

True, but currently, no one can match the offering of NVidia, they are the sole pioneer in this market. AMD is yet to show any viable option (both on the HW and SW layers).

MI300x is a great start. Agreed that the software needs work.

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