one counterpoint is - probability of one startup sampled at random from an ensemble of achieving venture success is very low, but that’s because many of the samples were doomed (P=0) and some of them were very high. So the P(success) for a specific individual (i.e., me) is a function of me and not a function of the ensemble. Some entrepreneurs have a 100% hit rate! I think the goal is to be one of those.