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Comment by chasebank | Hacker News Reader

I’d love to see historical statistics on annual prediction vs what actually happened with regards to El Niño/ La Niña. Spend most of my teens and early twenties chasing storms in the pnw and vividly remember prediction years not panning out but I’d rather see stats than relying on my memory.

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https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/the-atlantic-hurrica...

Good article wrt question of forecasts and accuracy - charts 30 past years of forecasts and matching observations.

    It might be easy to dismiss the Pennsylvania forecast. In some corners of the Internet, Mann is viewed as a master of climate doomerism for his outspoken views on the perils of a warming world. But if anything, since its first issuance in 2007, Mann's forecast has proven to be conservative.

etc.

The forecast accuracy could use a dedicated article.

It tracked very well from ~1997-2002, 2008-2012, and 2014-2015. It was off, from 1994-1996, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 2015-2020. In 3 of the 4 cases there the fore cast under-predicted major storms, outside the std of the forecast. I wonder why.

Not that you're asking for, but when poking around for what you asked for, I found a cool article explaining prediction methods: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/predicting-...

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