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Comment by robertlagrant | Hacker News Reader

Doesn't the first point have a probability of 1? It's the subsequent ones that become less and less likely.

Maybe my question was not right then. But my question was how likely is it that 7 randomly chosen points fall within a given 50 km band across europe. Because I want to test the hypotheses that the 7 cathedrals fall randomly in line that we see. And that one random point falls in that band is not 1.

It's pretty easy to Monte Carlo, even if you can't get there analytically.

Yes, but I suppose even if you have 7 that line up, they may not fall in your band.

To remove that constraint, so it's just any band, I think it should be more like: given a cathedral is in a particular place, how likely is it that six other cathedrals fall in a 50km wide band aross Europe.

Okay, GPT4 said there a just 189 non-overlapping 50km bands (horizontal, vertical, and diagnoal) in Europe and then continued to calculate the chance to land those 7 points in any of the 189 bands and gave a result in the order of 10^-12.

But diagonal at what angle? :)

I think if you set the probability of the first one at 1, then the rest works perfectly at any angle of band. I could be wrong, but intuitively that seems correct.

You could have two points in 2 of your non overlapping bands that are less than a band's width apart.

Also, the probability of the first 2 points will always be 100% because they define the line.

Also, it's not 7 random points, it's 7 of thousands of random points.

Alright, I suppose it's not as simple to formulate the question accurately and correctly.

> Also, it's not 7 random points, it's 7 of thousands of random points.

Ah - I missed this one.

search box tells me 600 choose 7 is 5e15, which implies (if google and GPT4 were correct) that there ought to be on the order of thousands of fat lines containing 7 actual cathedrals

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