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>firstly, the climate permits it. i assume now that any company holds a latent 10% rif in good times, just waiting for a bad market so it can lose the 10% to throw the market a bone

With you so far. Although they'd have done better to perhaps cut that fluff earlier on, I guess there were appearances of stability to be kept up.

> secondly, consumer/business software and the web are exiting the innovation phase and entering the cost phase.

Wait, really? Software companies have been exiting the innovative phase and entering the cost phase all along. That companies are doing this now does not indicate to me that there is no more innovating to be done. All that this implies is that it is less likely to be these companies doing that innovating.

> between moore's law making any idiot a passable coder, oodles of great free and open code, and winner-take-all economics, my opinion is that coding won't be a desirable job within a decade

Sorry if I'm wrong, but this seems more than a bit trollish. There is more to passable code than just raw performance. And all that free code just means that we don't have to solve those problems again, leaving the door open to solve different, and probably more difficult, problems. To say that coding won't be a desirable job within a decade is to imply there are really only a handful more problems to be solved before we are all done, or have only problems that can't be solved with the help of computers. This claim seems bogus.

"even in startup land it is about the gimmick more than the code these days"

It was never about the code. It has always been about the idea. The code is just a way of expressing one's ideas. Some people are more expressive, some have better ideas - we need both to succeed. Your comment on moore's law making any idiot a passable coder seems to miss the point - we've increased the number of people who can reasonably express their idea.

And even the high-end coders are able to take advantage of amazing opportunities, particularly in parallel processing on platforms like AWS - solving problems and expressing their ideas in ways they had only dreamed of trying.

I can only imagine that those of us with ideas we hope to try out will continue to delight in moore's law, great free and open code, and yes, winner-take-all economics where we'll compete based on our ideas.

It seems to me like innovation is happening faster and faster.

The consumer web has been "built".

--Charles H. Duell

While you are busy writing this clueless bullshit how innovation is over how business opportunities are over, someone out there is doing their "me 2" startup you live to hate (e.g. socialmedian.com just got bought for 8 million) because you are unable to just put your money where your mouth is. Do all of us favor and spare us with your presence.