I've said for years you're always better off settling with regulators on negotiated terms than having that regulator taking you to court. And Apple have been holding on too tightly to their App Store monopoly. It simply creates too much money now that we're way past covering costs. It's a massive cash cow. And everybody knows it.

Like when Apple offered to allow third-party payment processors but would only reduce its cut from 30% to 27%.

So Apple has two big problems now:

1. It's going to have to justify that 30% and it can't; and

2. It will come out that for certain companies, Apple charges significantly less than 30%. By picking favorites, particularly in markets Apple itself competes in, it's going to be a problem.

I suspect we will end up with Apple (and Google):

1. Being allowed to charge 10%;

2. Allowing third-payment payment processors;

3. In-app purchses through third-party mpayment processors yielding 0% for Apple. Think Amazon digital purchases like Kindle books and movies or Netflix subscriptions;

4. Purchase of apps charging less but I honestly don't think this matters because apps have largely moved away from upfront purchases in favor in in-app purchases and I see this trend continuing.

The big question is: will Apple have to allow third-party app stores? That's really what Apple wants to avoid.