Comment by po | Hacker News Reader

Comment by po | Hacker News Reader

There are a lot of doubters in the threads here and I think a lot of it has to do with the generative art that accompanies the article. They haven't picked a technology and it may actually end up being driverless cars on dedicated lanes, or automated rail technology. The point is non-stop driverless tech. The country is very well aware of the coming labor shortage and is going to rely heavily on automation in the future.

Anyone who has ever stepped on a Shinkansen can understand that Japan has a way of getting shit done. It may start a bit later than other countries, but when they finally decide to execute (and this is still in planning stages so it might not), it happens surprisingly quickly.

I've watched them totally revamp Shibuya station over the past 10 years in ways that make it utterly unrecognisable to someone who hasn't been here since then, all while never taking down-time. There is another article on the HN front page titled "Why it takes NYC nearly 10 years to install 500 feet of pipes" right now... that's perhaps coloring people's expectations of the possible.

> They haven't picked a technology and it may actually end up being driverless cars on dedicated lanes, or automated rail technology.

Which completely undermines the title, hence the doubt.

If they haven’t picked a technology, they haven’t really done much more than express interest in having an option to do something. The talk about extremely long (and expensive) tunnels or conveyor belts feels silly when the obviously more economical solutions like autonomous trucks or traditional train rails are vastly cheaper.

The conveyor belt thing is just a PR stunt. Nobody could possibly think it’s a viable option compared to traditional alternatives.

The conveyor belt thing has a lot of momentum behind it. There's a push to created automated logistical grid that replaces TEUs with a smaller more manageable and routable standard. Self driving and traditional rail just have extraneous overhead that a basic conveyor with switching simplifies.

Well belt conveyor definitely isn't the right approach - it's about 1.5-2x more expensive than other types of pallet conveyor (e.g. chain) and is difficult to maintain (snapped belts etc). Line shaft is another option, but has similar drawbacks to chain at this scale.

Also bear in mind that pallet conveyor is slow - in most factories or warehouses where you are covering large distances the standard approach would actually be to put a rail guided vehicle in (often called a pallet monorail).

Plus conveyors would then need to be enclosed (they have lots of moving parts - it's not like train rails where you can just put them outside and let it get wet. The pallets also can't get wet, but it would take less infrastructure to cover the pallets than cover the full 310 mile route.).

A material ropeway would be another option - not commonly deployed but probably a much better fit for moving pallets across these sort of distances and much faster than conveyor (although still probably only 15-20 miles per hour!).

I dont understand why it's got less overhead than rail (either with large trains, or automatic routing).

I think the skepticism comes from other companies and countries taking about using autonomous battery-powered sleds when the power of trains comes from the reduction to one or more traction units, which is far less complex.

If they have dedicated conveyor tracks* above grade the system makes sense, but this is expensive due to the costs of grade separation.

It's possible but probably the most expensive route.

* The tracks should probably be catenary or third rail, not battery.

> with the generative art that accompanies the article.

About that, I also noticed.-

Has anybody looked into how the lowering of the "illustration threshold" for visualizing ideas might influence how many, or which, or how hard it might be to bring them to reality? Or securing investment?

I am almost certain it is having some influence.-

There’s a long history of users and consumers having unrealistic ideas of technology true capabilities. How many times have we encountered users who think poor quality images can be computer “enhanced” to show detail that’s not really there, because countless murder mystery movies and tv shows do exactly that?

The blurred line between fantasy/hallucinations and reality will only become worse, I fear.

True. At some point, the illustration of the thing becomes the thing.-

PS. I am fond of "confabulation" meself, for AI-generated slush.-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BYW4YYqG5A

“1200 Japanese workers convert above ground train to subway line in just 3 hours”

Agree that the naysayers should pause while Japan attempts the feat. Their aggregate engineering capability speaks for itself.

Elo Musk could finish that in a year /s

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