> They could have no deaths for years, then suddenly a whole lot after a bad software push.

The software release process itself becomes the thing that is tested statistically. If they release 100 versions, and each is safer than the last, it’s silly to think that one can’t be confident in the safety of the 101st without some gov’t software approval/validation process.

> What happens to Waymo if they kill even 1 child due to a bug or lapse in model quality? …would you continue to let your kid ride Waymo?

If they had driven billions of death-less miles and then a software update killed a child, I would obviously let my kid ride Waymo. It wouldn’t be close.