Delivery Drivers Got Higher Wages. Now They're Getting Fewer Orders
wsj.com
wsj.com
Pizza is a bit of a different model because pizza delivery is sufficiently popular for pizza places to orient around supporting delivery well in the local area and have the drivers vertically integrated in-house.
DoorDash et al. aren't innovators in anything other than creative contracting and marketing. There's no magic practical efficiency that makes their business work.
Source? At least according to this study[1] 92% of uber/lyft drivers in seattle made above minimum wage. True, this isn't exactly the same as for delivery workers, but given how fungible the two jobs are I think it's fair to treat them as approximately the same. Much more interesting is how much your earnings vary depending on your assumptions. The study calculated $17.40/hr by using pessimistic assumptions, and $23.25/hr using optimistic assumptions.
[1] https://ecommons.cornell.edu/items/161915a8-b0b8-4dc4-b5ff-d...
It just doesn't seem to scale globally very well without a continuous cash injection.
Where this falls down is trying to scale the business to less affluent people without some serious limitations. Pizza delivery places for example generally have a small delivery radius which makes a huge difference.
It's illogical to say a business is not sustainable because it dies after its been kneecapped by regulation.
It's illogical to ignore the size of the market and think that there should somehow be a need for just any number of drivers instead of the required number of drivers.
It's illogical to ignore that when prices to customers are artificially low, customers will consume more than when they actually have to pay for what they consume.
Since the driver pool has been paid for by vc funding rather than consumers, there are more drivers than needed. A smaller number of drivers is perfectly sustainable.
Based on this my guess is that it's less about the competition and more about the middleman taking a cut.
music
movies
microcode (software)
high-speed pizza delivery
That being said, the in restaurant experience sure as hell isn’t what it used to be, either. Rarely bother with a sit down place anymore.
Grocery delivery seems to be a winner, though. Costs about $20 more and I don’t have to spend two hours dealing with it? Count me in.
I wouldn't doubt the drivers were stealing food. We've had occasions where the "wrong driver" picked up the food, but then "got a flat tire" and couldn't bring it back. This was a multi-hundred dollar order. I don't buy that crap for one minute. Some driver stole the food, and the restaurant may also have been at fault for not checking to make sure the proper driver got the order.
I slowed ordering when it became obvious the drivers were going to multiple restaurants, driving in the opposite direction to do other deliveries, and then my food from a relatively nearby restaurant was ice cold by the time I got it.
I stopped completely once they IPOed and it became a 30 minute back and forth for partial credit for missing food when they used to just issue you a full refund in 30 seconds.
Back when I regularly had to go to an office, my coworkers and I tried out a bunch of the delivery services. The one we settled on was Bite Squad because they apparently paid their drivers as actual employees[0], so an hourly wage and benefits, and had actual performance standards. If an item was left off, Bite Squad would dispatch a driver to go get it and bring it to us.
All of the contractor-based services would just refund for food and be done with it. The problem is, that isn't what we wanted. If we'd wanted money instead of food, we wouldn't have ordered. The service expects us to do the management of additional attempts instead of it being part of their service.
Ever since Bite Squad left Seattle, and especially now that I don't have to go to an office more than once or twice a month, I've not bothered with the food delivery apps.
0 - This was pre-pandemic, before Bite Squad "overhauled" their business model.
But then that gets countered by not wanting to pay too much for a luxury service, such as delivery, when I can just jump in the car and pick it up.
One question: What did this people do before all of these apps came into play?
These days I live in a somewhat dense city and yet I still prefer to order nearby and go walk to pick it up, at least when I'm just ordering for myself. It's probably an extra $5-10 and usually at least 20 minutes more to have someone else pick it up.
As for the economics... If you force higher wages, then higher prices are likely and demand then goes down. Not surprising.
The alternative might be for business to respond by working on higher efficiency, to get the average price of a delivery down by sharing the labor - that would require figuring out how to give the delivery workers multiple orders from the same or nearby restaurants to deliver in the same direction. Might be possible to build but when the restaurants aren't cooperating (it's wasteful for the delivery guy to wait for your food to be ready) and there's not enough orders from one area to another it's tough. Add that a lot of food delivery is relatively time sensitive as not all food keeps well / stays warm long enough. I suspect pizza delivery is the main type of business that has solved it this way. For everyone else, it's clearly a tricky problem and the net result either way is to need less labor for food delivery, higher prices, or a mix of both.
Which is fine as long as we have other jobs those delivery drivers are willing to switch to instead. Imo that's a big part of the problem - mandating certain jobs will pay better without necessarily having a plan for creating other jobs for the folks who end up underworked/jobless as a result. Now if gig companies downsized their workforces like regular employers some of the extra jobs should result from the extra discretionary income spent by the remaining workers... But probably a tiny fraction of what's needed to avoid more unemployment. Complicating this may be that gig workers are subject to underemployment if not enough if them quit, and I suspect the unemployment safety net works poorly for them.
We went to a restaurant and ate there. Or we got takeout.
Only pizza was ever "delivered" because you could batch up multiple pizzas and deliver them simultaneously.
I don't even remember any delis doing delivery and at least their products travel well.
Can't you do the same with regular restaurants? I've been to many non-pizza restaurants where delivery drivers regularly come in to pick up food. Surely those restaurants could do the same?
"Chinese" places are probably the only ones that I think can get close.
Traditionally, one shop had one or more drivers who would deliver multiple orders in one trip, and then return back to that same shop to pick up and deliver the next round.
This is very different from services like Doordash, which are many-to-many in terms of locations. There's a huge efficiency loss here.
Also different: Pizza delivery was single-source. If there was a problem with the order, the driver could fix it. Things like "Hey, man. You forgot our bucket of soda" could be fixed pretty quickly and painlessly -- they'll just bring it over on the next round, usually rather quickly.
Things are not this way with Doordash.
Sometimes, the options in an area extended to sandwiches or Chinese food or a little bit beyond.
So that's what we did if we were either lazy or busy: We ate pizzas, or sandwiches, or Chinese food. These things can all transport fairly well.
We simply did not get soggy Whoppers, cold fries, or tacos delivered. (Some of us still don't, as we feel that it is the path of madness.)
In doing genealogy, I've seen the end results of allowing powerful corporations to decide the best offer people would have.
Mass die-offs of 45yo's from Black Lung disease springs to mind.
> I don't think gig workers are remotely comparable to coal miners from 50 years ago.
I wasn't comparing gig workers to coal miners. I was illustrating how "best offers" are designed by corporations and trend toward being exploitive.
Yup. It's a tale as old as time.
Simply raising raising wages just means fewer people will be employed/contracted, thereby maintaining ultimate cost.
Another side effect is with higher wages, people have more money, which means more money in circulation, which means merchants will charge more for goods/services rendered. Aka inflation.
"Just raise wages." is an easy and seemingly simple thing to say and do, but economics aren't easy nor simple.
I always pick up my own food, but I’m aware that makes me an anachronism.
I tried it once. I'm in a suburban area. Food took 90 min to arrive. The driver went to/from the front door 3 times, trading food, before we wound up with our pizzas. They were cold.
What put me permanently off was the mistreatment of restaurants by the delivery corporations.
The same thing we do now: get takeout, sit down at the location, or cook at home.
Hell, even before these apps were invented I always just went and got my pizza or grabbed it on the way home.
Pizza was different, as mentioned in a sibling comment, because the pizzas themselves were cheap and shitty, there were only 3 pizza shops that delivered in your area: Domino's, later Papa Johns, and usually some popular local chain (not Little Caesars, not Pizza Hut, neither delivered.) They frequently took way longer than they said they would, each driver was delivering pizzas to 5 locations average on a run, and if it showed up cold you would eat it anyway, or throw it in the oven for a few minutes.
This individual attention did not exist, because it was obviously too expensive to provide. Only upper-middle class professionals got non-pizza restaurant deliveries, it was more expensive than it is now.
Chinese might be an exception, too. A lot of people would get Chinese delivered. But it would always be a ton of stuff in those neat, stackable white boxes, and the person delivering rarely spoke English (recent immigrant.)
Simple, the same thing many of us still do today:
1. We make our own food at home, using stuff we bought at the grocery store.
2. If we want restaurant food, we get up and leave home and go to the restaurant and eat there, and enjoy freshly-made food instead of cold food that was made 45+ minutes ago.
3. If we really wanted to eat professionally-made food at home, we ordered pizza. The pizza industry figured out how to do delivery cost-effectively decades ago (and keep the food hot too, something the new app-delivery industry apparently still hasn't quite figured out). Also, take-out has been around for ages.
The sort of situation where I order DoorDash now (too busy to go out, going through a major depressive episode and don't have the emotional energy to cook) I would have microwaved a frozen meal 10 years ago.
What if they tried to coordinate before the order was placed? There have been many days where I would have been happy to eat food from one of 10 different places, and we picked a restaurant more or less at random.
If a platform could coordinate my choice with the choice of 4 very close by neighbors, then they could send one driver to pick up maybe $300-500 of orders ($60-100 food per household) and give us some sort of discount.
I would actually allow notifications from an app that sometimes messaged me to say "several of your neighbors have ordered from X Restaurant, which you've liked in the past. Do you want to order also, for a 10% discount?".
Of course, if they bullshitted and tried to fake-it-till-you-make-it with the order momentum (telling 50 neighbors that several already ordered), that would be annoying and potentially fraudulent. But I would be happy to see a competitor arise and shift the coordination from delivery to ordering. It could make the business model work much better, and would also cut down on travel time, food sogginess, etc.
That seems like a nightmare. I sure don't want to go through the trouble of making 10 different orders just to save 10%. If I wanted to jump through that many hoops I'd pick it up myself.
I believe GP is saying they don’t care which of the 10 restaurants they place their single order, and if they knew which one would deliver most efficiently, they would choose it.
But yeah there's obviously a some point at which the returns are diminishing, e.g. if it was $100/hour nothing would get done. Legally at least.
Likewise, the low-end employers are priced out of the market.
It's the same survival of fittest, except the weakest constituance is hurt most. They are very sparse so their voice is never heard.
their voice is heard to a disproportionate extent because there are entire companies like Walmart and really entire industries like food service that built a business model around being able to pay sub-living wages (usually with the difference made up by tax dollars or tips).
The idea is to incentivize companies to hire these people for otherwise unprofitable work and mostly to get the disabled out of the house and earning some money that they otherwise would not.
For example, most of the prescription glasses made in the US are made by blind people under such a scheme.
Honestly, it sounds terribly exploitative. But, from what I understand, these schemes are mostly successful in that the disabled are happy with it along with the employers.
Wouldn't be a problem if we had ubi instead of minimum wage, but alas, voters don't want it
Not according to their own financials: orders were up 1M the first quarter for Door Dash compared to Q1 the previous year (+45M ‘23, +46M ‘24).
Door Dash don’t even mention the new laws in their most recent financials:
> In Q1 2024, Total Orders increased 21% Y/Y to 620 million and Marketplace GOV increased 21% Y/Y to $19.2 billion. We remain pleased with our execution against volume goals in all major areas of our business”
IMO, it would be neat to see a government provided "gig brokerage" of sorts that handles the dispatch of things like this (even including long haul delivery, maybe even a mechanical turk equivalent).
When the service is ultimately provided by a contractor, what's the point of having middlemen compete?
Any of us are free to start such a thing right now, if they wish to spend the time putting it together and running it.
(But even as a socialist, I think that this is approximately the last thing that the government should be in the middle of.)
Remember to factor in investors' motivation to extract capital above all else. Short term profit taking is an invisible fist.
I remember Postmates used to be able to deliver from any restaurant or store in your local area. Those were the days.
How big of a thing must it be?
His weekly earnings are down about 60% ..."I'm struggling to survive"
The unsaid implication: He used to make so much money from Uber Eats that he could afford the full set of NYC living costs.
Seriously? He made six figures as an Uber Eats driver?
That would seems like a pretty relevant detail to Jaget's story.
However, I'm with you that some chasm-filling speculation is needed to make the columns balance here.