Russia Claims Breakthrough With ATACMS
eurasiantimes.com
eurasiantimes.com
This a mid-80s technology and if they really just discovered something important and valuable about the technology, they would keep their mouths shut. If they put it out as a press release, it’s precisely because they didn’t discover anything new.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-found-dart-like-myst...
[0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/12/ukrainian-a...
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1czed3k/stri...
S-300/400 TEL have to stay close to the Radar for mainly two reasons.
The Radar vehicle also has the generator supplying the TELs with electricity.
and the even more important reason is that the radar data can only be transmited over a short distance so if the TEL is too far out it can't get data from the Radar anymore.
Edit: max range for a S-300 is 120m between the TELs and the Radar and since the S-400 is actually just a S-300PM3 its probably the same or at least very similar
I just assume the missiles they launched were trying to intercept incoming ATACMS rounds and they either failed to intercept, or they were outnumbered. Not a good day for the Russian side.
Ah, yes. The logical conclusion.
Plus the ATACMS still work with inertial guidance. that creates ever-increasing errors as the travel time increases but is often good enough for hitting strategic targets.
• Analyzing the missile’s maneuverability will determine which anti-aircraft missiles it can evade.
• They might advise on disrupting the missile’s communication or disabling its GPS.
• This analysis would help the RF military quickly detect launch sites and missile locations.
I used to think that I had some additional insight, hailing from a country neighbouring Russia, but it takes being born on former soviet territory to fully understand their line of thinking.
It's not that it's particularly sophisticated - just utterly foreign to anyone even west-adjacent.
We're basically using Ukraine to dispose of an outdated system ("In 2007, the U.S. Army terminated the ATACMS program due to cost, ending the ability to replenish stocks"; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS) we intend to deprecate.
The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_Strike_Missile is intended to replace it and has seen its first deliveries last year.
There's little indication they're worthless, and an article breathlessly citing someone saying "This is a signal to the whole world, not just the West, that Western weapons are no match for Russian arms" is not a change to that.
USSR/Russia has always loudly overstated the capabilities of its military and military hardware.
The US tends to stay mum about the capabilities of its hardware and when it talks about them, it tends to understate.
Even when the F-22 shot down that Chinese balloon (a hilarious use of cutting-edge air power) it was more impressive than it might have seemed at first glance. For years the claimed ceiling of the F-22 was 50,000 feet. But then they mentioned that it shot the balloon down from a height of 58,000 feet. Now the Wikipedia article (after years of edit fights) seems to have settled on 65,000 feel and the official USAF page says "above 50,000 feet". Maybe a trivial example but kind of representative.
(Don't get me wrong, the US "flexes" military might in other gaudy ways. I'm not saying we are humble and Russia is not. It's just funny how the two countries go about it differently....)
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/m...
I find it amusing Lockheed Martin cares about small business arms component suppliers
Lockheed et al are primarily systems integrators. They have sprawling networks of vendors that they’re orchestrating to produce “their” weapon systems.
That movie War Dogs, while comical and inaccurate about a number of points, kinda was spot on about that one.
e.g. https://www.acquisition.gov/far/part-19#FAR_Subpart_19_2
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/precision-stri...
I watch combat videos daily and Iskander is easily their most potent weapon after Lancet drones (and artillery). Patriot can't cover the whole massive frontlines.
The most potent weapon in their arsenal right now in terms of battlefield value are their helicopters and glide bombs
Ukraine is hitting Russian air defenses with ATACMS, successfully and repeatedly. Corresponding attempts with Iskanders and Kinzhals to target the Patriots have largely failed.
There seems to be a wide gap in capability between the two scenarios - in either the attacking missiles, the defending systems, or both. Ukraine doesn't have enough Patriots to defend everywhere, but they're dramatically more effective than the Russian equivalents where they are stationed.
If nothing else, the war has been a huge advertising boon for Western defense contractors.
> There seems to be a wide gap in capability between the two scenario
This is entirely premised on Russian air defense being equal in high value areas vs Ballistic missiles (which is easily the hardest test, even for the US). Patriot systems were tested many times IRL against SCUD missiles during Desert storm and more recently vs Iran, plus general skill available in US R&D/military, while Russia never tested their S-400 systems in (real) combat and is notorious for poor maintenance/training.
Unless you equalize these 2 things it's a moot point. RU missile teams have had plenty of press about improving their operational effectiveness in the last year. AA has not.
Additionally, these systems aren't that sophisticated, it's GPS+inertial navigation+maneuvering+maybe some limited anti-EW. The rest is intelligence, EW, operators, etc. ATACMS was designed in the mid 1980s after all...
Operational testing is expected in 2024, with low-rate initial production, full-rate production, and initial capability testing expected in 2025, according to the Government Accountability Office’s 2023 Weapons Systems Annual Assessment.
A total of 110 PrSMs are expected to be procured in fiscal 2024 and 190 in fiscal 2025
It's fairly ridiculous to claim that ATACMS M57(?) last produced a few years to decade ago which are still our best-in-class available for operational use until ~2025+ are "30 years" old tech. The number of PrSMs we'll have by end of next year would last us about 24 hours in a great power war.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/07/lockheed-precision...
The quality of Russian equipment being deployed right now is really bad. The limiting factor here is not “science”.
Fun bonus if you want to watch some people die:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1dv3086/north_kore...
Ukraine is being hit with Iskander-M all the time, e.g. just days ago at Myrhorod taking out SU-27s.
The quality of Russian equipment being deployed right now is really bad.
And yet Ukraine is still losing territory, countless men, and the war. This blasé attitude is just bizarre, as if NATO has a secret stock of wunderwaffen about to be arrive and deliver the coup de grâce any day. NATO has spent a quarter trillion dollars+ on this proxy war, staked its credibility on it, and is losing.
Fun bonus if you want to watch some people die:
Things people who have lost their humanity say.
Ukraine is losing territory at a glacial pace. Meanwhile Russia is giving away (selling) territory to China.
Russia is also losing men att a rate of 5-to-1 or thereabout.
Losing the war? Pfft. Russia is throwing away all their equipment, countless of lives and ruining their economy in the ground... For nothing.
US-made weapons augmented by Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites for position updates in Ukraine are now susceptible to Russian electronic warfare (EW) jamming ... The weapons affected may include the 155mm Excalibur artillery projectiles, Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) and weapons rounds used with the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), among others, depending on how they are employed by the weapons operators.
An unnamed source reportedly familiar with the classified report told the NYT that in the worst-case scenario, only one in 19 Excalibur rounds was hitting its target, where the report said the cost per successful strike skyrocketed from $300,000 to $1.9 million between January and August 2023.
Being able to test GPS jamming techniques against intact munitions isn't some hypothetical academic problem.
The US military-industrial complex is probably extremely grateful for the chance to do the same, here. Very useful if there's ever a direct conflict.
Excalibur, GLSDB, JDAM, and ATACMS all have GPS-aided inertial guidance and can be set to fall back to just inertial; the US has long been aware of the likelihood of GPS jamming in a hot war, and certainly plans to employ the same sort of jamming themselves against potential enemies.
I fully expect there's a lot of work being done on cheap anti-jammer drones that home in on a jammer's signal; it's like a big "come get me!" signal. We already have HARM missiles for radar for a similar purpose.
There are definitely many ways to make those jammers disappear. Ukraine will inevitably find a way to do it on the cheap.
Or when Russians appears to have lost a jamming pod above Ukraine [1] Again bleeding edge EW tech which Russia just lost.
[0] https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-use-bombs-equipped-with-e...
[1] https://www.twz.com/ukraine-just-captured-one-of-russias-mos...
If Ukraine is just leaving the GPS guidance turned off entirely and relying on inertial guidance, then whatever secrets Russia has discovered in ATACMS really are academic.
Yes, we fairly reasonably believe that Russia's struggle to make progress against a smaller neighbor using NATO hand-me-downs is heavily indicative of how they'd do against all of NATO using B-2s, F-22s and F-35s.
I concede that NATO would put in more effort against Russia, but how about better not finding out in the first place? Russia would also put in more effort.
This is hubris at its finest.
I mean, that's the point. That Russia's obvious takeaway from Ukraine should be "we'd lose fast and badly against actual NATO".
As with Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, a loss in Ukraine is most likely to come from the West going "eh whatever good enough we're out", not superior tech on the Russian side.
It was clear from the beginning that every weapon system used in Ukraine could and probably would land on the black market, that’s why Israel didn’t provide any own weapon system fearing it would land in the hands of their enemies.
This is Zed propaganda/fake news , a soldier can't put a missile in his pocket and go home and exchange it for alcohol.
I think the main concern is Ukrainians that are loyal to Kremlin and smuggle information witch is more easy then selling big stuff on the black market.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-soldier-defect-steal-tank-r....
That said, the end of the first paragraph is "Russian state media reported on Thursday" — even after the ink is dry on the ultimate settlement of the peace negotiations that have not yet started, we won't know for sure how many stories like this are propaganda.
> Given how many tanks Ukrainian farmers stole from Russian soldiers, this would not surprise me greatly.
How many though?
> we won't know for sure how many stories like this are propaganda.
But my imagination fails me to see how a soldiers is smuggling a missile, it won't fit in his pockets/ass and he can't ride it to Kremlin and they must be some good kilometers behind the font lines. so tell me how you imagine this happening ?
Really, but you also failed the imagination test on how to do it.
AFAIK this is all Ruzzian propaganda for idiots int he West, same idiots that believe Zelenksy bought a new mansion and sports car this week or that Macron and Obama's Wives are men.
I am sure it is much easier to grab rocket secrets by using the KGB methods then a soldier smuggling a rocket in a way nobody seems to imagine yet.
Did you see today Ruzzian shit propaganda? There was a video a week ago I think where a Ruzzian soldier that was wounded was mercy killed by other Ruzzian soldier, the Zeds on the reddits were defending this move and seems that today or yesterday the Ruzzian national TV used this video but labeled as Ukrainians doing it and considering it evil. I am waiting to see the online trolls spinning this, they were paid to comment that is normal what the Ruzzian did and now they are paid to claim the video is about Ukrainians.
[1] SOTA as of 1991
[2] According to Kremlin propaganda
They get ones in various states of brokenness because Ukraine throws them towards them. For example, https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-atacms-attack-luha... says “The source said the footage showed a "Ukrainian ATACMS strike, with 4 ATACMS, including one dud, hitting a Russian training area in Mozhnyakivka, Luhansk Oblast."”
As usual, everything is completely unclear in this stalemate war where both sides regularly claim overwhelming successes yet nothing has changed for 2 years.
Its only completely unclear if you think that the words of a dictatorship is equally trustworthy as a democracy plus the journalism of the rest of the free world.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accuses-kyiv-usi...
So either Russia shot down 4 of the 5 missiles and they landed in apartment buildings, or the one that landed on the beach was also shot down.
Or they staged everything, including blowing up apartment buildings.
Unlikely, since Defense Secretary Austin had emergency phone calls after the beach incident.
Regarding the stalemate, maps shown at the Institute for the Study of War also show little change. No need for Russian sources here.
Of course, not all free media is competent and Reuters is making the exact same mistake of blindly citing Russian sources without doing due diligence.
If the whole attack, including the beach incident, was staged, link to that.
As far as I know, there isn't one. The only thing we have is Russian sources, which by their track-record is only fairy tail propaganda.
Republishing such a story is not due diligence. Doing their own research would be.
Which is not at all in contradiction. The ATACMS could have been highly successful but not any longer. In fact, this would be exactly what you would expect if the claims in the article are true.
> As usual, everything is completely unclear in this stalemate war where both sides regularly claim overwhelming successes yet nothing has changed for 2 years.
Yeah it’s insane Russia continues in this war of aggression where they’re gaining no land, losing people at a clip of 2-3:1, losing its most modern weaponry against the decades old cast offs of the West, is reduced to begging North Korea for help, has probably already lost significant amounts of land to China, and all this against a country that until a decade ago didn’t barely had a military.
Ukraine border is too close to Moscow, it is easy to go from Ukraine to Moscow and Russia know they would fail to defend themselves from a NATO land invasion from there. Thus why they are willing to pay a very high price to ensure this won't happen.
The US really doesn't have to think about these things because there are oceans between it and any potential adversary powerful enough to threaten it: any defense of the US would rely mostly on its navy and air force. In contrast, the most destructive wars are those fought with land forces, e.g., WW I, WW II, the Chinese Civil War and the one time (namely, the US Civil War) that a big land war was fought in North America. (The American Revolutionary War was a mild affair compared to the 4 wars I just listed because unlike the 4 wars I just listed, the homeland of one of the combatants was never in jeopardy.)
The US security establishment is privileged because it does not need to become competent at sharing a land mass (or, worse, a plain such as the European Plain shown in the link below) with nations with high military potential:
That’s why the war continues.
If it had anything to do with NATO, but maybe you didn’t notice that as a direct result of this war 2 nations with borders with Russia have joined NATO and those 2 nations are significantly more useful members for NATO with a highly advanced defense industry in the case of Sweden, and a history of kicking Russian ass against significant odds in the case of Finland.
And even the nonsense of NATO entering Russia is ridiculous. NATO is made of functioning countries that want to basically just do trade. The last thing they want is a war with a nuclear power. Heck, 2.5 years into a very clear war of aggression by Russia where there is no uncertainty about Russia’s moral guilt and the illegalness of its invasion as well as the legality of Ukraine’s defense of itself, NATO has just given Ukraine the permission to strike on Russian soil but even then in a highly limited area and only indisputably military targets.
All the evidence for decades, including, for example, efforts by the U.S. to increase free trade with Russia, the Brits inviting Russian oligarchs to buy up their key football clubs and all the land in London, and Germany deliberately making itself dependent on Russian gas, has shown that NATO countries want Russia to be a partner in the community of nations and have absolutely no interest in Russia’s largely worthless land.
The Russian military is an absolute embarrassment, and to the extent the Russian leadership and further, the Russian people, continue to allow this illegal war of aggression to continue under their names, it’s an embarrassment to them as well.
When your rallying cry is “we have a history of enduring fighting bitter battles with massive loss of life to gain little to no useful territory” to justify continuing this war where you’re losing badly and embarrassing yourself on the world stage with a begging bowl aimed at North Korea, you’ve shown yourself to not be a serious nation in the 21st century.
Ironically, pushing Finland into NATO, bringing Moscow into SRBM range of an actual NATO member. Oops.
The idea that it would have even the slightest interest in doing so is just absolutely fucking absurd.
It's just pure scare imagery that the Russian deep state puts out -- to feed its internal narratives ("The West out to encircle us, only the Russian state can protect you"), and to confuse and mollify external opposition to its blatantly aggressive actions against neighboring states.
So Russia finally managed to chalk up a few wins? They were losing S-300 and S-400 sites at an alarming rate... to ATACMS. That's moderately ridiculous, since S-400 is supposed to be state of the art Russian military export technology.
2 years ago, Russia was in full control of the Black Sea. Russia's IFV, tank and artillery storage depots were still well-stocked with vehicles. It was still able to fly A50 spy planes over the Sea of Azov and Black sea. Ukraine had no practical means of waging a campaign against Russian oil refineries, it had HIMARS, but no western tanks, Bradley IFVs, Patriot, Samp-T and NASAMs batteries, no Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, no prospect of western jets and their weapons systems.
For balance, Ukraine still had its power stations, tens of thousands of its soldiers were still alive. Bakhmut and Avdiivka hadn't been razed, Vuhledar hadn't been shattered, and it had yet to spend part of its force on an poorly-judged counter-offensive.
No matter how deadlocked it might seem today, a position isn't a stalemate when so much around either side's ability to wage war is in flux.