Ark Invest: Robotaxis 28 trillion by 2030 [video] | Hacker News Reader

Ark Invest: Robotaxis 28 trillion by 2030 [video]

youtube.com

4 pointsmgh211 comments

They also think robotaxi will make Tesla a 7T company [0]. For reference, our US annual budget is 6T.

[0] https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-te...

For more apples to AAPLs reference that's almost exactly 200% the value of the highest valued company in the world (Apple) at the time of this comment, with Tesla currently standing at ~20% of the same.

Yearly budget vs value is just awkward to compare even though both are measured in dollars.

The calculations or Tesla to be 25T company or 1/4 of the current global market (100T) is too rosy, even considering a projection of 16% capture of 150T by 2035

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/268750/global-gross-dome....

*i.e. if we don't consider the bitcoin holdings hack

Is this Cathie Wood? She hasn’t been right about anything in the last decade.

Yes, the woman who started Ark Invest because it was "God's will"

This is what I don’t understand. Why is someone like this treated as an investment guru, in spite of the easily available evidence to the contrary? I’m pretty sure that if my track record consisted of fucking up again and again I wouldn’t last for very long. How do these people manage to stick around for years?

Its because people are sheep. And if you claim to be a guru and act like a guru, people will listen to you and follow you. It's really that simple. Just try. You can be a guru and earn millions. The only thing stopping you is that you are an ethical person who knows that the stuff will be incongruent. But if you can somehow get over that through either an act of god or being born in an environment where people treat you as special or just happen to get lucky few times etc you can be the next Cathy of your field too.

> Its because people are sheep.

I have changed my mind on this. These type of 'scams' seems enabled by people who think they are wolfs and that they are in on the deal.

I guess the actual victims have no clue who Cathy is.

It's Cathie's Wood fund (the woman in the video is an "analyst", it's not Cathie).

How to they stay in business ? Marketing ! They know how to sell themselves and how to appeal to naive "investors" that discovered stock market during the post-covid bubble. She has also mastered the power of social media.

Also note, that she is making loads of money for her and her fund - through management fees. Of course it will stop eventually... but in the meantime, she will make hundreds of millions of $ in fees.

This sounds ludicrous. Their own projections are saying that the value of the companies doing robotaxis are going to be worth 20x as much as the companies making the actual cars. It doesn’t even make logical sense. This for an industry that doesn’t even exist today outside of a few limited players like Waymo.

To put it bluntly they’re predicting a whole new industry will be launched on the global stage that within 6 years will be bigger than Apple, Microsoft, NVidia, Google, Amazon, and Meta combined.

The projection seems pretty ludicrous by most all accounts I can think of but that's not what they project about companies doing robotaxis, they close in saying they see auto manufacturers will either consolidate into, partner with, or be a robotaxi company.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com