Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

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> It sounds as if you have an emotional issue with the idea that people can change their own situation.

On the contrary, I am simply data informed. It sounds like you're operating from a mental model that overweighs ability in outcomes. I have provided links below to help you improve and evolve this model.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/beautiful-minds/the-... ("The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized")

https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/01/144958/if-youre-... | http://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 ("Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure")

https://ustrustaem.fs.ml.com/content/dam/ust/articles/pdf/20... (2022 Bank of America Private Bank Study of Wealthy Americans: The impact of shifting generational attitudes amid an historic wealth transfer) [Only 27% of the ultra wealthy are self made; 70% of Americans who hold more than $3 million are over 56 years old.]

https://www.financialsamurai.com/your-wealth-is-mostly-due-t... ("Your Outsized Wealth Is Mostly Due To Luck: Be Thankful!")

> And no, parents or grandparents or country or genetics or whatever are not luck either.

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/about/news-room/press-releases-... ("Parental Income Has Outsized Influence on Children’s Economic Future")

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/7122514681658661... ("Global inequality of opportunity: How much of our income is determined by where we live?")

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-origins-of-menta... | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000292972... ("Genes Influence Children’s Success, Directly and Indirectly")

> Choosing a suitable mate is about as close to the meaning of life as we have.

~43% of first marriages fail, ~60% of second marriages, ~73% third marriages.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/legal/divorce/divorce-statist...

Good luck.

Alright, I had previously been lazy but here's a proper response.

I'm confused because to me, everything you have posted backs up the idea that these things are in fact actions and not luck based.

Country of residence is not luck based, it's either pre-determined or chosen by parents.

27% self made is huge, I would have expected it to be lower.

Parental income having an effect on children's is also not an example of luck. If I work hard so that my children do well, that is not luck based.

Genes influence success, so choose good genes.

43% of marriages failing simply shows that many people don't take it as seriously as they used to due to things like no fault divorce. So choose well. Your partner, at least the type of person they are, should not be luck based. Your marriage definitely should not feel like a 4 in 10 dice roll, if it does you have really messed up.

I think you and I (really, me and most left wing media) have a different definition of luck. Luck is rolling a die and getting a number, these things are more like causative factors.

But still, there exist plenty of people who have been born into adversity and study and work hard, network and press the right buttons. That isn't luck, a lottery win is luck.

I dunno. It all just feels like a way to absolve one's self from responsibility to me. I did the washing up yesterday, so today I don't have to do it. Is today me lucky that yesterday me did it? Only in the colloquial sense.

Like you said, you have a different definition of luck. Others seem to say "factors that you did not choose, and do not have the ability to change" are luck.

> Country of residence is not luck based, it's either pre-determined or chosen by parents.

So you have very little to do with it; you can probably choose this after you finish school, but this is dependent on the place you would like to emigrate to letting you in, thus it's mostly not up to you.

> Parental income having an effect on children's is also not an example of luck. If I work hard so that my children do well, that is not luck based.

If I get the resources to do well because my parents worked hard, that is really not something I choose, so it's "luck".

> Genes influence success, so choose good genes.

One can hardly choose their own genes, can they?

> But still, there exist plenty of people who have been born into adversity and study and work hard, network and press the right buttons.

This is true. They would have had an easier time and achieved more if they did not have to dig out of the basement first before building up.

Nobody is saying that you cannot be smart and diligent enough to change your lot in life, we are just saying it is hard, getting harder every day, and it should not be.

I just think this is a basic logical error.

39 year old me built a shed.

40 year old me then has a shed.

40 year old me did not influence or choose 39 year old me.

But 40 year old me does not have a shed due to luck.

It was causative.

Your parents and your past decisions are not luck based.

If you want to call that luck, then you need a different word for actual luck such as chance encounters, lottery wins, unexpected windfalls etc, because otherwise we are just misinterpreting each other.

If you didn't choose it, do it, and cannot change it, it's not up to you. Whatever parents n-1 year old you had, or nationality they had, are the same ones n year old you have. If they are abusive, or in war, you are screwed. Build a shed or not. Of course there are things you can do to improve your and your children's lives (and you should), but there are irreversible handicaps you can have through no choice or action of yours.

Define "luck". That's what this whole disagreement hinges on. You're using a different definition of luck.

Sure, I reap the fruits of my past decisions, like the shed. More to the point, I reap the fruits of my parents' decisions. Is that luck?

It's not luck from the perspective of actions having consequences, and parents doing things that help their children.

It is luck from the perspective of "you didn't pick your parents", or from the "if you were going to be born to someone random, where and when would you want to be born?" perspective.

So you and abenga are saying "yes it is!" "no it's not" about the same set of facts, because you're running different definitions of what is or is not luck.

Arguments about the definitions of words are really uninteresting. What you and abenga are saying boils down to "yes, actions have consequences, and better actions lead to better consequences, both for yourself and your descendents, but no, you didn't select the parents, country, or time you were born to".

Apart from the definition of "luck", do either of you actually disagree with either side of that? If so, with what part, and why?

And, if you do agree with it, what conclusions do you draw?

I agree that the words don't matter.

What it comes down to is that luck cannot be incentivised - a dice will always roll a 2, 1/6th of the time.

But good behaviour can be incentivised, e.g. people choosing their partners well and providing stable environments for their children.

We should incentivise good behaviour whilst also ensuring that luck doesn't result in unassailable leads e.g. a lottery win probably should not result in a 1000 year dynasty but a lottery win combined with intelligent estate planning, good mate selection, diversification etc probably should.

> if you were going to be born to someone random, where and when would you want to be born

I think that this is like asking, if 40 year old you were completely randomly spawned, whose life would you like to continue from. You can't. The lineage from your parents to you is the same as the lineage from you to you. It's a nonsense line of inquiry.

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