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Comment by throwaway42668 | Hacker News Reader

I wouldn't even know how to answer the question as presented in the poll.

Confidence in higher education to do what?

Yeah, until it materializes in lower rates of people actually going to college people at minimum folks seem pretty confident that it has a return on investment.

Also I'm honestly not sure I really care/put any weight into the opinions of random adults whose opinions of higher education are basically a reflection of how universities are portrayed to them in their news bubble. The fact that political affiliation not only matters but matters a great deal means it has little to do with the institutions themselves. I bet you could get the same results with "confidence in science" which is just as vague and nonsensical.

It has been materializing in fewer people going to college in fact.

Probably has more to do with birth rates, but nevertheless its a good thing since these institutions of higher learning will be more accessible to people who are actually passionate about whay they’re learning rather than a bunch of people trying to check a box

Fertility rates are an interesting hypothesis, but looking at the data I think we can definitely say that's not the driver. In 2011 there was total enrollment of about 21 million. In modern times we're down to around 19 million. [1] Fertility rates have only recently cratered, and from 1990-2010 we were even pretty close to sustainability. That's relevant, because that's when most of all of the current student body would have been born. So there's definitely fewer children, as can be clearly seen in this population pyramid [2], but it can also be seen the difference is, at most, the low hundreds of thousands. And we're talking a difference on the order of millions fewer students.

An open question would also be the overall shift (if any) in international enrollment. If international enrollment has stayed the same (or even increased) then it means the decline in American enrollment could be even more extreme. By contrast if international enrollment has completely plummeted, it could go some way towards mitigating these numbers.

[1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enroll...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USA_Population_Pyramid.sv...

I would have loved a control question like, "How much confidence do you have in confidence?"

How much confidence do you have in weather?

How much confidence do you have in yourself?

Thanks for the Sound of Music song bomb, that’s definitely going to be stuck in my head for the rest of the day!

We reached 'peak university' (in terms of enrollment) in 2011. [1] I also would not say political affiliation matters, as confidence is plummeting for all groups. As for science, they seem to have stopped asking this question after 2021 (perhaps to avoid the temporary biases caused by COVID?) but Gallup has indeed had science as one of their 'confidence in institution' series of questions. [2] As of 2021 it had a total of 64%, leaving it as the ~3 highest rated institution. That's contrasted against 36% for higher education, leaving it somewhere between the church and medical system.

[1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enroll...

[2] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.as...

Don't think covid affected university reputations that much. Slogans like "decolonize maths" and skin colour based recruitment and award of degrees give me very little confidence even in modern STEM degrees from formerly prestigious universities.

Honestly, I think universities took their good reputations for granted, and so chose to pursue other goals than maintain them.

I don't think any institution can maintain the confidence of the general public without being scrupulously neutral on controversial things (or at least scrupulously respectful of all common perspectives) and staying focused on widely-shared values.

These are niche talking point if you aren’t terminally online. Most people probably aren’t even considering politics, it’s just an issue of cost and roi. Degrees are oversaturated and insanely expensive.

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