"less than two years ago, conventional wisdom dictated that the housing bubble would be painful but that global economic growth would remain stable."
Forgive me, Mr. Writer, but my recollection is that less than two years ago, few people in the mainstream were acknowledging that a housing bubble even existed. Hell, even a year ago, half of the mainstream press was essentially reprinting press releases from hacks like Lawrence Yun (widely quoted "expert" for the National Association of Realtors), who never saw a bad housing statistic that he couldn't spin for the positive. Those who were calling a bubble a bubble early on (as early as 2003) were labeled jealous curmudgeons who missed out on the easy-money party.
I keep trying to come up with a lesson from this, but the only thing I can think of is that our society doesn't reward dissent. No matter how insane and extreme the conventional wisdom, it doesn't pay to be the guy who vocalizes against the herd. If you're a contrary thinker, it's best to just keep your head down, your mouth shut, and do whatever you were going to do anyway.