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Comment by jonahx | Hacker News Reader

Would love to hear from experts how much validity / evidence there is behind Dalio's economic writings and videos.

You can see in the pdf, N=3. For a lot of conclusions, there is nearly no evidence here.

That being said; money printing is an interesting economic tool in that it is an extreme stretch to say it has any positive impact in the real world. That the US is now resorting to it as a strategy for what seems to be every crisis is a very bad sign. Not because it is, in itself, a problem but because it suggests the leadership in several systemically important decision making offices are being challenged and are not capable of answering the challenge.

Nothing survives over a long enough time scale. So the US will fall from grace and fail too. The question really is, is that going to happen within our lifetimes and what effects will we see in the meantime?

Depending on how honest China's economic data is, in theory the interesting part has probably already happened. The Chinese economy is a behemoth. The era where the US was the unquestioned global leader is over and probably the era where they were the most industrially competent nation too. China's policies are probably more material to the global economy right now than the US's, although it won't be easy to tell without a few decades hindsight.

As far as I can tell, if the Russia-China-India axis agree on something there isn't going to be much the US can do about it. That suggests Asian issues are about to become globally significant in a way that they weren't back in the 2000s.

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