The Nokia Torture | Hacker News Reader

The Nokia Torture

mondaynote.com

29 pointsjcurbo15 comments

I don't doubt that this outcome was in the list of possible outcomes Microsoft has considered. Nokia tanks, their CEO gives early notice to Microsoft, which buys the 'good bits' and lets the rest of the body sink into the ocean carrying unfavorable pension plans and other obligations with it. Turning Microsoft into the third vertically integrated smartphone company after Apple and Google. They might even get to keep the brand name.

Indeed. And there's no tax advantage to keeping the new company in Finland, so they probably won't.

And I'd give dollars to donuts* that Microsoft gets the trademarks. HTC or Samsung might want them, but Microsoft will get first right of refusal, and they won't let them get away.

*Dollars to donuts isn't that compelling in this day and age. Canadian dollars, perhaps.

A Canadian dollar is only $0.974USD right now.

Have you tried VooDoo Donuts? Those are some serious donuts and well worth a dollar :-)

Portland is leaking everywhere these days...

Trademarks? Trademarks are not cool. You know what's cool?

PATENTS.

Patents in the mobile space, which is currently the most litigious tech sector.

Nokia has thousands of them, because they used to be a great engineering company which pioneered mobile TLCs. Their patent war-chest is comparable to Motorola's, if not better. They will be acquired by one of the following companies: a) Apple, b) Google, c) Microsoft. And there won't be any antitrust concerns: the buyer will just sell off any manufacturing activities to some Chinese or Taiwanese company, and place all their patents in a well-protected safe for their lawyers to peruse.

So how does mondaynote's view reconcile with, say, Nokia's role in IDC's predictions?

http://windowsphonegeek.com/news/IDC-Latest-Report-Windows-P...

Everyone's an expert.

Well, for one thing, they are very nearly talking about two completely different things.

This is a commentary on a statement by Nokia that, if accurate, sums up to: Things are bad and worse than expected.

The IDC press release, which lacks any information on data or methods, seems to say: If Nokia can turn its emerging market dumb phone users into Windows smart phone users, it will displace iOS as the number two smart phone OS in five years.

If I'm not mistaken, Microsoft is a big customer of IDC. While IDC isn't strictly pay-to-play, many of these "independent" analysts essentially make money recommending products produced by their customers. I'd consider it likely that Microsoft's cash is a factor in IDC's coverage.

Also worth noting is that IDC's track record here is pretty bad. From the article you linked:

"IDC predicted that Windows Phone would become the number two smartphone OS in terms of shipments back in March 2011"

Oops.

This seems to ignore everyone's struggle to compete with Apple and Samsung at the high-end and the bloodbath at the zero margin low end. HTC seems in a best case scenario position compared to Nokia - they have well respected hardware, a good name, and are established/experienced partners with the dominant mobile platform - yet they're losing money. RIM are probably more analogous to Nokia when Elop took over - a reputation for great hardware but maintaining a dying/technologically stagnant platform with too hazy promises of something better tomorrow - and their experience, even with a steadier strategy, says that Nokia might not have had any win-win options.

And this will likely be RIM in 12 months, but without a benefactor (for at least the smartphone business) in the wings.

I still think that going Windows Phone was Nokia's best option -- even though it was a risk. The problem is just that the ship turned too late. It hit the berg anyway.

When RMS Titanic turned, too late to avoid the iceberg, the glancing collision breached 5 of 16 watertight compartments, and she could only survive at most 4 flooded compartments. Some speculate if she had reversed her engines and only struck the iceberg head-on, she would have remained afloat, though crippled.

I don't know that Nokia could have executed such a "head-on" for their crises, though the "burning platform" memo is regarded as a mistake by many. Would you take your analogy that far - Nokia could have faced the problem head-on?

Nokia did have a head-on crash strategy in following up Symbian^3 with MeeGo. I wasn't involved in that space, but it looked potentially survivable to me, especially as a means to steal away developers from Android.

Maybe it's just me - but isn't firing so many people in such a short time period a clear sign of extremely bad management?

Whether or not it's the "fault" of the current or previous management, I don't know, but it nevertheless looks like extremely poor planning.

If you hired so many people, and then fired them all again so quickly - doesn't that show a lack of foresight?

I always feel sorry for the employees in situations like this, and I wonder how is it that such poor managers (as is shown by falling profits/market share/firing everyone) end up running the place.

Then I remember that the world is extremely random and move on my merry way.

I remember seeing job postings by Nokia for Linux developers, a few weeks after the "burning platform" speech, and thinking "this stuff must have been approved more than a month ago, and you'll be fired as soon as you get hired -- IF they'll hire anyone at all".

Nokia is a case study in bad corporate management practices.

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